It is now much harder for older workers to exit long-term unemployment than it was before the last recession, new research from the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) has suggested.
The research, commissioned by the Department of Social Protection, examined whether the characteristics associated with the risk of long-term unemployment have changed since the department’s model was originally developed in 2006.
Compared to the situation in 2006, older workers were found to be “much less likely” to leave the Live Register before 12 months in 2018.
Generally the study found the pattern of exit from unemployment in 2018 was similar to that in 2006 despite the fact that 12 years separate the two periods and a global recession occurred in between.
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The characteristics associated with long-term unemployment risk in 2018 and in 2006 were also found to be similar. In particular, the likelihood of leaving unemployment before 12 months was found to decline with age, literacy problems, the presence of children, a previous spell of long-term unemployment and being casually employed.
On the other hand, being in very good health was found to increase this likelihood in both periods.
Location, in terms of whether a jobseeker lived in a rural area, village, town or city, was found to be a less important predictor in 2018.
A jobseeker’s willingness to move for a job was found to be a very important factor for men’s unemployment duration in 2006, but this was no longer the case in 2018.
Finally, marital status was an important factor for women in determining their unemployment duration in 2006 but this was no longer the situation in 2018.
On the other hand, having access to one’s own transport was important for women in 2018 but not in 2006.
The study also identified eight key characteristics associated with the risk of long-term unemployment among jobseekers in Ireland.
They included claiming jobseeker’s allowance; not being recently employed; having low levels of educational attainment; poor (self-perceived) health; and having a history of long-term unemployment.
The others were having previously been on the community employment scheme; not having access to one’s own transport; and being older.
