Electricity supplies face ongoing pressure over the next decade as climate change measures and data centre expansion drive increasing demand, according to national grid operator Eirgrid.
A new report from the State company weighs the balance of likely electricity demand against supplies up to 2034.
The report predicts that growth in demand will most likely hit 45 per cent in 2023-2034, driven by climate policy measures, such as using electricity for transport and home heating, and the expansion of data centres and new technology.
Electricity demand in the Republic hit a new peak of 6,024 megawatts (MW) on January 8th, the first time consumption passed the 6,000MW mark.
The company calculates that Irish homes and businesses peak electricity needs will top the 7,000MW mark by 2034.
Eirgrid forecasts that the Republic will need extra power plants between now and 2027 as demand keeps growing, under all scenarios that its staff used when compiling the report.
However, the grid company notes that the network has four gas- and diesel-powered temporary emergency generators to fall back on, should electricity demand outstrip supplies.
The ESB-owned Moneypoint power station on the Shannon Estuary will have its life extended beyond its scheduled closure this year and will switch from burning coal to heavy fuel oil to generate electricity.
Eirgrid regards the emergency power plants and Moneypoint as last resorts and they do not supply power to the electricity market.
The company says, that so far this winter, it has not called on the emergency generators, which are located in North Wall in the capital, Huntstown in Co Dublin, Shannonbridge in Co Offaly and Tarbert in Co Kerry.
Eirgrid dates its forecasts on April 30th, 2024, so this report does not take into account Government plans to accelerate house building, which would boost demand, or subsequent auctions to recruit new power station developers.
It used three “demand scenarios”, low, median, which produced the 45 per cent increase forecast, and high, which takes into account higher demand stemming from expansion in new technology and greater than expected economic growth.
The company foresees pressure easing in 2027-2028 once the Celtic Interconnector, a power line running from the south coast to France, begins supplying electricity.
However, the State will need more power stations over the succeeding six years, Eirgrid said.
In 2028-2032 the report estimates that, under the highest demand scenario, the Republic will need new generators capable of producing 600MW-800MW of electricity, equal to two new gas-fired power stations.
In 2032-2034 Eirgrid said the State would need anything from 100MW to 1,000MW extra, depending on the scenario.
The report also indicates that offshore wind capacity will hit 1,354MW in 2030, not the 5,000MW that Government aims.
Northern Ireland, which previously expected to generate more electricity than it needed up to 2032, faces uncertainty over supplies.
EP Kilroot Ltd, which operates a power plant near Carrickfergus in Co Antrim, is not going ahead with plans for a new turbine there. Eirgrid subsidiary, System Operator Northern Ireland, believes demand will ease in the short term but begin growing from 2027.
Eirgrid’s report cautions that Ireland, north and south, faces potential electricity shortfalls between now and 2034.
