A week when 5 minutes was an eternity

Perspectives on time are different in financial markets than in the real world

Perspectives on time are different in financial markets than in the real world. The expressions "long term" and "short term" can be sufficiently elastic to encompass a whole spectrum of timeframes. To a foreign exchange trader, a longterm position might last an hour or a day or a week. To a fund manager, a shortterm investment might be a couple of months. But to both of them, if the position is not looking too good, the next five minutes can seem like an eternity.

There were a few eternities over the past number of days for both foreign exchange dealers and fund managers even though when markets are volatile the day seems to be too short.

It's funny, too, how new stories can wipe last week's headlines completely out of your thoughts. After the Hang Seng crash, nobody wanted to know about Europe or the US, other than how they were reacting to the crisis. Then Wall Street went into freefall and it stole the limelight. And next week's story might be something utterly different.

A sense of deja vu prevailed when the Asian authorities made the usual denunciations of speculators. During our "currency crisis" a couple of years ago, I recall Irish politicians spitting out the word as though they were talking about a particularly low level of lifeform. I guess some of those politicians would rather be speculators themselves these days.

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Anyhow, one man's speculator is another man's investment manager. And the Asians are much bigger personal investors in the stock market than the Irish.

Let's face it, if you knew that the value of your shares would be worth significantly less in a few hours time and you were faced with losing your entire savings, would you wait around and decide that everything would be OK in the "long term"? Sometimes we forget that markets are made up of people. The market is referred to as some kind of heartless entity, but the twin pillars of fear and greed are provided by the people who work in them, and the people whose money they manage.

We had our own crisis in the office last week which had nothing to do with market moves. Our crisis was in coffee futures!

The coffee machine has been a source of constant complaint since we moved in. It's one of those gadgets where you press a button for regular coffee or regular tea or extra strong coffee and they all taste pretty much the same. Whatever each other's views on the markets and we can have some very different views the consensus on the coffee machine was fairly unanimous. Absolutely awful.

Then somebody came and removed the coffee machine.

A new, boiling water machine was installed, but no coffee. The Hang Seng could have fallen 100 per cent, Britain could have given EMU the green light and Dana could have announced she was going for Pope on the next attempt, but all of these things would have faded into insignificance beside the disappearance of the coffee machine. It has yet to be resolved. It's not good for the market to be short of caffeine.

The guys in the office are both intrigued and worried by my foray into print. As with all good dealers, they are looking at both sides of this particular trade the upside is that they are determined to offer me a variety of topics which they feel need public airing the stresses and strains of being a male in today's bridge-building, out-reaching, pro-female world (ha!); their views on the importance of football as a microcosm of life itself (ha! ha!); and how hard they actually work and why it's absolutely true that they've been at the desk all day and that it's a dirty job, but somebody has to do it.

The downside is that I might mention something, anything, that would make them appear anything less than the caring, sensitive souls that they undoubtedly are . . .

Already I have been accused of not noticing that all of them have more than one suit, that their ties are carefully chosen for maximum effect and that aggression is not a word any of them even understand.

Anyway they've had to do without me this week because I've gone in search of some sun for a belated summer holiday. And what a time to go with the markets resembling a rollercoaster and things finally getting interesting after a summer of generally one-way moves.

For those who wonder what's the markets are going to do next give me a break! If I knew the answer to that question I wouldn't be working in them. I'd be sitting by the pool, sipping margaritas while I made a few languid calls to my broker.

However, the flood of research that has hit the desk lately suggests that the Hong Kong dollar is overvalued. That it doesn't matter. That it does matter. That the US won't raise rates. That it might raise rates. That China will devalue the yuan. That it can't devalue the yuan. That bonds will outperform equities. That it could be a good time to buy equities. That the fall in the Hang Seng has stopped. That it will fall again only more.

Still, those divergent views are what makes a market. And what makes it interesting.

Sheila O'Flanagan is a fixed-income specialist with NCB stockbrokers.