There has never been a better time for either women who took time out to raise families, or the long-term unemployed, to get back into the workforce, says John Lynch, director general of state training agency FAS. "Next year's GNP growth levels are predicted to be 7 per cent and it is possible that this figure will have to be revised upwards, all of which means a significant increase in job opportunities," he says.
This, in turn, will result in a fall in the number of people on the live register and the eradication of large scale emigration, he predicts. "In the 1970s, emigration was running at around 27,000 per annum," he says, "At one stage, in 1989, it rose to 40,000. By contrast, we saw a net influx of 15,000 people in the year up to April 1997."
The other major consequence of the high growth levels currently being achieved by the economy is that an increasing number of women are finding their way into the workforce, he says. Between 1990 and 1997 the number of 15 to 64-year-old women in the labour force grew from 39 per cent to 46 per cent which is close to the EU average, he says. For its part, FAS is currently training more women than ever before, with females now accounting for approximately 50 per cent of all trainees.
Despite the economic boom, Irish long-term unemployed figures remain high. However, Lynch rejects arguments that the State's new-found prosperity is having little impact on this section of its people. "At the end of 1996, the live register figure was down 17,000 on its August level," he says. "That decline has continued this year with a further fall of almost 17,000 up to the end of October. In other words, the growth level of the economy is giving the long-term unemployed an opportunity to get into the economy." He is also dismissive of suggestions that the current economic boom is at risk of being scuppered by a growing skills shortage, with the high tech computer sector particularly at risk. "The so-called skills shortage has been hyped up far too much," he says. "From an examination that I have carried out with a number of the main players in the electronics industry, I have found them to be satisfied with current availability of skills."
The number of students presently moving through academic and training institutions should more than adequately meet the future skills needs of such employers, he feels.
Where there will be a labour shortage, however, is at the lower end of the skills scale. "There will be a tightening of labour in the areas of unskilled and semi-skilled workers," he says, offering the retail sector by way of example. Such a scenario is a sign of the country's strength rather than a weakness, he believes.
"In the late 1980s and early 1990s Ireland was in an abnormal situation for a developed country in that we had kids leaving university only to take jobs from leaving cert students. These, in turn, took jobs from the junior certs, all of which forced the system downwards. It was very much an employer's market. Now, however, high growth levels mean there will be a tightening at the unskilled end of the market. Employers, therefore, are no longer able to benefit from the abnormal situation which existed in the past and, as such, are going to have to change their recruitment patterns. "They are going to have to take people in, train them up themselves and offer them a career path."
The mere fact that employers are having to change the "cherry-picking" recruitment patterns which they grew used to in the last decade should make the coming year extraordinarily fruitful for people trying to get back into the workforce.
"The normal practice in most countries is for employers looking for labour to go to the long-term unemployed as a source. That hasn't happened here, however, until very recently because there such a plentiful supply of labour. Up until 1993, in particular, Irish employers just weren't interested in the longterm unemployed. Now they are simply going to have to seek them out because otherwise they just won't be able to get workers at all." While employment growth over the last number of years has been around the 48,000 mark, Lynch predicts that this will continue into 1998 before plateauing at about 37,000 new jobs in 1999 and 2000. "It makes it a great time for both women and the long-term unemployed to get back to employment, but it is also true that if we don't get stuck into the long-term unemployment figures now, we never will," he warns.
