A positive vision of the future of international trading in beef was given to the Agricultural Science Association conference in Galway yesterday.

Delegates were told by Richard Lowe, managing director of the UK Meat and Livestock Commission, that imports of beef into Britain will rise by over 40 per cent this year due to the impact of foot-and-mouth disease.

He said the impact of the foot-and-mouth cull on the British herd, combined with a reduced breeding herd, would lead to a 13 per cent decline in cattle slaughterings in 2001 and a further 5 per cent decline forecast for 2002.

The BSE crisis in Europe in November 2000 had no impact on British beef consumption. Consumption there reached a low following the March 1996 crisis, but by February 2000 consumption had exceeded the 1995 level.

While British consumers preferred to eat British-produced beef, the increased import requirement represented an opportunity for exporters from Ireland.

Catherine Macklin, of Dawn Italia, a company which imports Irish beef into Italy, said Irish beef exports to Italy had reached 30,000 tonnes per annum prior to November last. Sales for 2001 are expected to be, at best, half of that.

Ms Macklin said the greatest effect of the BSE crisis in that country was felt in the retail sector, where all but a few of the multiples suspended sales of Irish beef and were only now beginning to relist the product.

Following the previous 1996 BSE crisis, Irish beef regained its market share through "anonymity". The market was recaptured by selling under the retailer's name. Consumers trusted the retailer - although they did not know the beef's origin.

"The compulsory labelling has delayed the recovery of Irish beef, but should ultimately mean a more secure future because of partnership arrangements with multiple retailers," Ms Macklin said.

She said meat factories will have to work more closely with farmers to satisfy the Italian market's demands.

There were five new cases of BSE this week, the Department of Agriculture reported yesterday. All the animals were over six years old. This brings the total so far this year to 152, three more than for the whole of 2000.