Biffo tunes up his banjo pre-Budget

"We can't shape the wind" declared Brian Cowen in a moment of profundity, between assuring a relieved nation that their fundamentals…

"We can't shape the wind" declared Brian Cowen in a moment of profundity, between assuring a relieved nation that their fundamentals are sound, but might have to be squeezed a little with some economic belt tightening, writes Miriam Lord

Yet if anybody can harness the prevailing breeze, it's Biffo. He was the wind beneath Bertie's wings during the final week of the election campaign.

It was the Minister for Finance's strong talk of firm fiscal management that steadied a shaky electorate and steered it back to Bertie's side.

Brian has gone native in the Department of Finance. He can juggle forecasts with adjustments while perched on a lower plateau growth rate with a pie chart in one hand and expanded Budget Outlook in the other.

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Yesterday, at his department's new "I can't believe it's not the Budget Estimates" Pre-Budget Outlook launch, he was fully in control of his brief.

The two senior civil servants on either side of him never said a word.

They never once had to lean in and whisper an encouraging statistic or helpful calculation in his ear.

In fact, all Assistant Secretaries Michael McGrath (economic and pensions division) and Ann Nolan (sectoral policy division) had to do was sit next to Biffo, smiling intelligently, casting the occasional admiring glance in his direction.

The Minister had an answer for everything - upturns, downturns and outlooks, expected growth, projected surplus, overall budgetary position and forecast revisions.

Somebody had a question about "unallocated provisions". Where could they be found in the weighty document his officials handed out for the persecution of the working press?

"Table Six" shot back Biffo without having to check.

The two Assistant Secretaries looked ever so slightly crestfallen because they would have been only too willing to tell him had he been a bit stuck.

God, but these annual economic romps through the housekeeping accounts of Ireland plc are heavy going for the ordinary mortal.

These are the days when journalism's class swots come out to play, embarrassing their grubbier colleagues who view high finance in terms of keeping back enough money for a taxi after a night on the beer.

Last year, some of us bemoaned the rather dull nature of these press conferences, when the Minister takes to a podium and drones on about book-keeping for what seems like forever.

Last year, we took refuge in describing how he never smiled and wore a rumpled suit.

A rather miffed Biffo took us to task afterwards. What did we expect? After all, this is very, very important stuff.

"What do you want me to do? Come in playing the banjo?" Yes, please.

Unfortunately, he disappointed again. Not even a bar of a song to relieve the tedium.

The Minister has a lovely singing voice.

But back to the Pre-Budget Outlook, which has replaced the Pre-Budget Estimates.

This is part of the Minister's plan to introduce a "unified Budget".

Yesterday's exercise dealt with the ELS, which is the existing level of public services, and the cost of maintaining them.

Brian outlined how many billions it takes to pay for these services, with accompanying tables and pie-charts.

Put another way, it is the money needed to provide everything next year, that the State is already providing this year.

Anything new, and the cost of funding it, will be announced in December's Budget.

Now that this existing spend has been accounted for, the disbursement of the remainder of his Budget allocation can be hammered out.

But he wasn't saying how much that will be.

It's all still positive, though. The fundamentals are still strong "going forward".

We're still flush, but not rolling in it as we were during the boom times. There will have to be some tightening measures.

"There will be a moderation as I'm about to move into the ministerial discussions, pre-Budget," he explained.

So how much will he be giving to the various Ministers beating down his door with their shopping lists?

"It remains to be seen," grinned Biffo. The Ministers must be feeling a little worried?

Not so, indicated the Minister, feeling a joke coming on. They're all very happy with the situation.

And everybody laughed.

Biffo didn't want to frighten anybody. "We're not suggesting we're on our uppers here," he assured the nation.

"We're trying to run the show in a sensible fashion." But "double digit increases" in spending are "a thing of the past".

Then came the word according to Biffo. "The key to success is to anticipate changes and to adjust and adapt to those changing circumstances."

He might equally have been talking about the Fianna Fail leadership.

All in all, so, he says, the country is on a sound footing. But we cannot be certain about future economic trends, and how outside forces might influence them.

"We can't shape the wind," mused Biffo, smiling again. "You can just hope it's on your back."

He looked so happy he might even have played the banjo, had he remembered to bring it.

Maybe it's time to worry.