One traditional measure of consumer demand at Christmas is the amount of cash in circulation, which is up by more than 13.5 per cent on last year's levels, according to figures from the Central Bank. But lending institutions say it is hard to tell where the money is coming from - are consumers borrowing to meet their Christmas needs, drawing on savings or do they simply have more money in their pockets?

The various types of personal lending, including overdrafts, current accounts and term lending, make it hard to get a clear snapshot of consumer borrowing in the run-up to Christmas, financial institutions say.

The picture is further clouded by the large number of lenders including the banks, building societies and credit unions which account for 40-50 per cent of all personal loans.

But the banks say that although trends in terms of credit growth are strong, lending has been buoyant for the last two years and they have seen no sudden acceleration.

"Credit growth patterns are not dramatically different to 12 months ago," AIB says. Bank of Ireland also says it has not seen a surge in borrowing. "It's much the same as last year. There's no huge borrowing spree," a bank spokesman said.

The Irish League of Credit Unions has no hard figures for the current period, but anecdotal evidence brings it to the same conclusion as the banks.

"Loan growth is steady. There is nothing untoward going on," says Ms Grace Perrott, head of marketing.

AIB also says there are no signs of stress in areas like credit cards. Credit card advances have been quite modest and in line with expectations, the bank says.

Financial institutions say consumers may want to borrow next year to fund home improvements or holidays and are therefore funding Christmas out of existing resources.