Consumer spending at Christmas is a good barometer of economic health, according to business analysts in Belfast. If department stores are over-spilling, if queues at checkpoints are overwhelming, then the Economy Minister can breathe a sigh of relief - at least until January.
According to Mr Philip McDonagh, chief economist at PricewaterhouseCoopers, the Northern Ireland consumer spend is vitally important to the local economy.
Not only does it help to sustain more than 17,000 retail jobs but it is also playing an important role in maintaining jobs in the service, production and construction sectors.
"The consumer spend, particularly at this time of year, reflects the growth in the local economy. From the evidence this year, consumer spend is increasing in Northern Ireland in line with the pattern right across the UK.
"Consumer spend is playing an important role in keeping the economy going in the North as the global economic slowdown hits some sectors harder than others," Mr McDonagh said.
According to PricewaterhouseCoopers' research, the retail sector is one of the fastest-growing sectors in the North, in terms of capital investment and job creation.
"There is no doubt that manufacturers and exporters in Northern Ireland have been hit by the impact of the economic slowdown. This has been evident in restructuring programmes and redundancies.
"But consumers tend to be a law unto themselves - yes, we are seeing rising unemployment in Northern Ireland and a fall in business confidence but this will take some time to impact on the high street.
"It may appear contradictory on the surface but there are no signs of weakening consumer confidence - consumers are happy to continue spending what is in their pockets," Mr McDonagh added.
He believes a recent spate of proposals to develop new shopping centres in Belfast also reflects investor confidence in the city as a retail hub.
There are currently four developers seeking planning permission to create substantial shopping centres in the city.
A new £80 million sterling (€129 million) complex, known as D5, has been granted planning permission on a 52-acre site on the Harbour Estate in Belfast.
It is expected to create up to 1,200 jobs and would be one of the largest retail developments in the North when completed.
Meanwhile, the owners of Castle Court shopping centre in Belfast - Westfield and MEPC - are seeking planning permission to enlarge the centre, in a multi-million pound development, which they claim would create up to 3,500 jobs in the city.
Dunloe Ewart has also lodged an application to develop a £150 million sterling Cathedral Way scheme, just yards away from Castle Court, while the Dutch group Multi Development Corporation (MDC) has applied for planning permission for its £200 million Victoria Square Development, also in Belfast city centre.
But while there is no shortage of enthusiasm for future developments, Belfast city centre is losing out in the short term, according to Mr Frank Caddy, the chief executive of Belfast Chamber of Trade.
He said although the city was keeping pace with inflation patterns across the UK, there was no retail boom on the streets of Belfast this Christmas.
"Trading is pretty flat in Belfast, it is probably on a par with last year's figures but we are definitely not seeing the huge consumer spending patterns that are taking shape across the UK," Mr Caddy said.
"We estimate that year-on-year footfall, which is calculated from transaction numbers, has actually fallen by about 5,000 people.
"And there is a simple reason for this - Belfast has lost some of its uniqueness. Ten years ago we had an exclusive high street, we had the only Marks & Spencer in Northern Ireland, we had big department store names and leading high street retailers - now that's not the case," Mr Caddy said.
He believes the growth in out-of-town centres and the proliferation of new shopping centres in outlying towns has made it harder for retailers to woo shoppers to the city centre.
