ShoppingCentres:A large Irish delegation attended the conference and exhibition of the British Council of Shopping Centres, reports Jack Faganin Newcastle.
A PROPERTY adviser to one of the UK's top fashion houses has been understandably confused about the size of the Irish population.
After studying the demographics advanced by developers promoting shopping centre space in Dublin and numerous other urban centres, he concluded that the overall population seemed to be closer to 14 million than 4 million.
The miscalculation can be explained away by the greatly exaggerated estimates of the number of shoppers in "catchment areas" close to planned new retail developments. The hype is all about attracting vital anchor tenants who hold the key to the success of these ventures.
The rush to build more shopping centre space in Dublin and elsewhere has been unrelenting. Eight new facilities have been completed in the past two months alone - Gorey, Athlone, Arklow, Citywest, CHQ, Tallaght's Glasshaus, Charlestown (off the M50) and Kilkenny - and up to 20 more are in the pipeline.
In the Dublin area, developers are planning to build more than 464,515sq m (5 million sq ft) of additional shopping centre space in the expectation that the shopping boom will continue.
Irish optimism about the retail market is not shared by 150 of the top shopping centre owners and developers in the UK who have learned to handle changes in interest rates and the economy but who know that, with consumers notoriously fickle, it is difficult to forecast future trends. The group is predicting that annual consumer expenditure growth in the UK - which averaged 4.9 per cent in the 10 years to 2004 - will fall to 2.7 per cent in the decade between 2005 and 2015.
In a slower growth environment, centres have been told that they will have to steal customers from rival centres. The end result will be increasing polarisation between "the best" and "the rest".
Happily the picture painted at the annual conference and exhibition of the British Council of Shopping Centres in Newcastle last week had little impact on a large Irish delegation which is still enjoying the fruits of a vibrant retail market.
British multiples - such as Marks & Spencer, Tesco, Debenhams, Boots, and ladies fashion group New Look and internationals chains like Zara and H&M - are still expanding fast in Ireland alongside local companies led by Dunnes Stores, Penneys, A Wear and Heatons.
There has been no let up in the battle between Dunnes and Tesco as they aggressively chase every major trading opportunity coming on the market. While all this is going on the German discounters, Aldi and Lidl, have still managed to stay below the planning radar by rolling out smaller edge-of-town stores all over the country.
However, most of the development activity is still centred in the greater Dublin area where the growth in population and the spending power has been increasingly concentrated.
Two sites identified as suitable for major new retail developments are the 50 acres opposite The Pavilions in Swords. Brothers Michael and Tom Bailey of Bovale Developments unveiled plans in Newcastle for up to 92,900sq m (1 million sq ft) of shopping facilities in what will be known as Swords Centre.
Next biggest will be the 69,675sq m (750,000sq ft) of retail space that will form part of the 140,000sq m (1.5 million sq ft) shopping and leisure complex planned by Joe O'Reilly's company, Chartered Land, for the former Carlton Cinema site between O'Connell Street and Moore Street.
OTHER centres due to be expanded are Dundrum, The Pavilions and Northern Quarter (each with 60,385sq m\650,000sq ft); Northside (63,727sq m\685,962sq ft); The Square (51,095sq m\550,000sq ft); Tallaght's Glasshaus (46,450sq m\500,000sq ft); Blanchardstown and Adamstown (27,870sq m/300,000sq ft); Liffey Valley (23,225sq m\250,000sq ft); Donaghmede (13,935sq m\150,000sq ft); and Charlestown (4,600sq m\50,000sq ft).
Four of the Dublin shopping centres - Blanchardstown, The Square, Adamstown and Swords Centre - were pitching for high-profile traders when they sponsored stands at the Newcastle exhibition which attracted 3,300 developers, traders and agents.
The four were by all accounts happy with their endeavours but no one stage-managed it better than Joe O'Reilly who used the occasion to wrap up important deals with the House of Frazer and Marks & Spencer. The two British giants will now anchor the third phase of The Pavilions in Swords which is due to open in 2011.
John King, the Laois-born CEO of House of Frazer, also signalled that he may open a third Dublin store on the Carlton Cinema site to be redeveloped by O'Reilly. Joe O'Reilly's Landmark is being advised by Bannon Commercial.
Four other Irish development companies - also in Newcastle looking for endorsement - were there for the very good reason that they will have to compete with rival schemes in the same provincial centres.
The new Opera shopping centre - planned for the centre of Limerick by Gerry O'Reilly, Terry Sweeney and David Courtney - was unveiled at a time when two more shopping centres are under construction in the city and two others are to be redeveloped.
The timing of the Opera project may well be fortuitous because Limerick is the only Irish city to have allowed out-of-town shopping centres to grow like topsy at the expense of the traditional shopping streets in the city centre. It is also the only Irish city where out-of-town retail rents are higher than on the high streets - a serious indictment of the way the city council has managed shopping developments.
The Opera scheme has the potential to help shift the balance back in favour of the city because it will involve the regeneration of a large block of rundown buildings, some almost opposite Arthur's Quay shopping centre and running around the corner to Bank Place and Michael Street at the rear.
The plan is to provide 40,000sq m (430,556sq ft) of shopping space on two main levels and two smaller top floors, much of it in modern shopping malls behind Georgian facades.
The well located site was quietly assembled over the years by Northern Ireland businessmen Sam Morrison and Sunil Sharma who later sold it for a reputed €100 million.
Larry Brennan of Savills HOK will be letting agent for the centre which will have two main anchor tenants and about 40 shop units. The promoters will obviously be hoping that Brown Thomas may fill one of those anchor units by moving down from its tired store on O'Connell Street.
The Opera centre will also have a foodcourt to seat 500 people. Otherwise it will be aimed at fashion and lifestyle retailers. The development is likely to trigger an upgrading of the Arthur's Quay shopping centre which has dated rapidly despite the fact that it is not yet 20 years in business.
Also due to be redeveloped is the rundown Parkway shopping centre on the Dublin Road which was acquired last year by Pat Doherty's Harcourt Group. A few hundred yards away, Liam Carroll is building Parkway Valley shopping centre in competition with the impressive new Dunnes Stores on nearby Childers Road. And on the opposite end of the city, Tesco is to anchor a new shopping centre known as Coonagh Cross on the Ennis Road. It will be only a short distance from the new Jetland Centre anchored by Dunnes and still struggling to make its mark.
ALSO pitching for attention at the BCSC exhibition was Destination Waterford, a €280 million shopping centre planned for the city centre by the Wexford-based KRM Construction Partnership.
The city council approved of the scheme for 60 retail units extending to 25,000sq m (269,100sq ft), a 150-bedroom hotel and 600 car-parking spaces but the decision has been appealed to An Bord Pleanála.
Also held up by planning delays is a rival scheme by Parker Green for a €300 million development on the Cork Road. The 36,556sq m (393,485sq ft) two-phase project is to include retail, leisure, office and residential units as well as a retail warehousing park.
In the same week as the newly completed McDonagh Junction shopping centre opened for business in Kilkenny, a rival centre, Citymart, was also vying for endorsement at the Newcastle exhibition.
The developers here are expecting planning permission shortly for 23,255sq m (250,000sq ft) of shopping in the first phase, including two anchor stores to be occupied by Tesco and M & S.
The €200 million scheme will extend the streetscape in the city centre and will also include apartments, a hotel and offices.
Also getting attention in Newcastle were the promoters of the Bray Town Centre who have just lodged a new planning application for a €2 billion retail, leisure and residential complex on Bray's old golf course. An Bord Pleanála recently refused permission for the scheme and this time Pizarro Developments has opted for more retail space - 57,000sq m (613,542sq ft) which they say is "in response to anticipated anchor tenant requirements".
Sean Mulryan's Ballymore Developments has stolen a march on the bigger scheme by securing planning approval for the €100 million Florentine Centre shopping complex right in the centre of Bray.
