Comment Isolde GogginNiels Bohr, the Nobel-prize winning physicist, once said that prediction is very difficult, especially about the future. It would be a brave person who tried to forecast the future of an industry as dynamic as telecommunications, where so many past predictions have gone so spectacularly wrong.
Having spent almost 20 years in the industry, if I had a euro for every time I heard that video phones were the next big thing, I'd now be comfortably retired.
On the other hand, nobody predicted that the humble text message would take over the world, with over a billion texts sent by Irish users in the last quarter of 2004.
Despite the perils associated with looking ahead, it's important from time to time for a regulatory agency like ComReg to take stock, to ensure that it is following the appropriate strategy for the future, rather than trying to solve the past's problems.
Ireland is currently entering a period of significant change in the telecoms sector, with new technologies rapidly emerging. The communications sector is worth an estimated €4 billion in direct contribution to the economy each year, as well as providing over 15,000 jobs.
Since liberalisation of the sector in 1997, telecommunications prices have fallen by almost 20 per cent in nominal terms, while per capita spending has almost doubled from € 547 to € 964.
This growth is largely due to mobile phones usage, which now stands at 94 per cent of the population.
The use of information and communications technologies (ICT) is also important in improving efficiency and productivity in the economy in general; the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) estimates that it contributes around 1 per cent to annual gross domestic product growth (GDP) in Ireland, the second highest in Europe.
In addition to its economic impact, the communications sector also touches almost every aspect of our daily lives. Communicating with friends and family, booking seats for the cinema or theatre, buying goods and services, listening to music and watching films have all been enabled by developments in fixed and mobile telecommunications networks.
As the industry regulator, ComReg has initiated a debate about the future of Ireland's telecoms sector. Our aim is to stimulate debate and encourage feedback on issues that may affect the sector as it develops up to 2010, and on how we should adapt regulation to cope with change.
To get a debate started, we have published a consultation paper entitled: Forward looking Review of the Irish Telecoms Sector (available at www.comreg.ie). The outcome of this debate will be used, not only to complete ComReg's formal Strategy Statement for 2005 to 2007 which will be published during the summer, but also to inform our thinking on the role of telecommunications regulation in the longer term.
We believe that there are a number of important trends that will critically affect the evolution of the telecoms sector in the next five years.
Firstly, investment is needed in next generation networks - the networks which will provide bandwidths much higher than what is currently considered "broadband".
This is imperative if consumers and service providers are to benefit from the potential of next generation networks, and Ireland is to remain competitive. There are some indications that this investment is beginning in Ireland.
Secondly, convergence is likely to take place between different aspects of the telecoms sector - between fixed and mobile, for instance, or between broadcasting and mobile.
Wireless technologies such as Wi-Max are likely to play an important role in fixed mobile convergence.
Thirdly, as telecommunications becomes more a part of our everyday lives, its importance in terms of social inclusion is increasing. As next generation networks develop the role of universal service obligations may need to be re-examined.
How these developments play out over the next five years affects, and is affected by, ComReg's actions. Our main roles are to promote competition and to protect consumers. In the ideal scenario, convergence between different "platforms" (fixed, mobile, broadcasting) would lead to the development of a competitive market where consumers are well served in terms of price, choice and quality.
In this scenario little regulation is needed, beyond technical functions in areas such as spectrum management and numbering.
On the other hand, it may be that competition will not increase without more radical measures than hitherto, to ensure non-discrimination in access to infrastructure, ranging from behavioural change up to even the separation of Eircom's network and retail businesses into different companies.
Where companies continue to hold a dominant position in a particular market, it is likely that the need for some consumer protection will remain, but there may be a trade-off between regulation at the wholesale and retail levels.
In order to shape a rounded and comprehensive strategy for the telecoms sector, it's important that ComReg gets a wide range of views on the future of the sector.
ComReg would welcome opinions from the public, industry and interest groups in relation to the scenarios and options outlined in the document. The full document is available on the ComReg website. www.comreg.ie
Isolde Goggin is chairwoman of ComReg
