Debt a heavy burden in few homes- study

Only 2 per cent of Irish households describe their current debt position as a heavy burden, despite indebtedness more than tripling…

Only 2 per cent of Irish households describe their current debt position as a heavy burden, despite indebtedness more than tripling over the past six years, a new survey has shown.

According to the study by IIB Bank and the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), about 30,000 households in the Republic believe the combination of their mortgage and other personal borrowings represent a heavy burden on their financial situation.

Austin Hughes, chief economist at IIB Bank, said that given the increased indebtedness and the rising interest rate environment, he would have expected the figure to be higher.

However, he also said there had been several developments, including a substantial increase in after-tax income - up about 60 per cent since 2001 - higher mortgage interest relief and the maturing of the Government's Special Savings Incentive Accounts (SSIAs), which together had eased the burden posed by higher monthly loan repayments. Mr Hughes added that while higher interest rates had caused some squeeze on homeowners, there was no evidence of a sharp worsening in the debt burden.

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He said the finances of Irish consumers remained in rude health and on the whole Irish borrowers tended to have a more cautious attitude to debt than their UK counterparts.

When compared with April 2006, the last time the survey was carried out, the proportion of mortgage holders describing their debt as a "heavy burden" rose marginally to 18 per cent, from 16 per cent. The percentage that said it was "somewhat of a burden" rose to 55 per cent, from 51 per cent.

But when it came to unsecured debt, the percentage of respondents saying it was a heavy burden was unchanged at 18 per cent. Those describing it as "something of a burden" rose from 44 per cent to 50 per cent.

The survey questioned 750 householders in July, of whom 37 per cent had an outstanding mortgage.

The findings, which also predict that by the end of this year Irish people will have €200 billion worth of financial liabilities, came as the State's biggest bank cut its forecast for economic growth.

AIB said yesterday it expected gross domestic product growth to slow to 3.3 per cent next year because of a further weakening in housing activity and slower growth in consumer spending.

This compares with an expected 4.8 per cent increase this year and follows growth of 6.7 per cent in the first half of the year. AIB economist John Beggs said he expected growth to recover to 4 per cent in 2009, but predicted that, until then, most sectors of the economy would slow.

Separately, Ulster Bank economist Simon Barry warned of further problems for Irish exporters as a result of the strong euro. While they are already hurting due to the decline in the dollar, Mr Barry predicted further pain as sterling also weakens against the euro, reaching 72 pence by the middle of next year. It is currently at 69 pence.

He also forecast a new high of $1.45 for the euro, with $1.50 a possibility.