A confidential report has advised Dublin Bus to shift its focus away from city centre areas and towards the sprawling suburbs beyond the M50 where strong population growth is evident.

The report, by DKM Economic Consultants, seeks to advise the company on where future growth may lie based on demographic projections. The report claims that city centre areas, despite the boom in apartment building, have not been growing strongly. It also claims that public transport is likely to be most in need in areas beyond the M50. The report examines census data from between 1996 and 2002 and concludes: "The largest drop in population occurred in the central area, where a fall of 13 per cent took place.

"The public perception that apartment development has been raising the population in central Dublin is simply mistaken".

It adds: "The likelihood is that there will be an increased reliance on the car for the adult population in the Dublin Bus region over the next 10 to 15 years.

"These trends are a consequence of the well-established process of urban sprawl, creating a low density, diffused, high car ownership metropolitan area," the report states. "Buses are the only realistic mode which can reverse these trends in the short to medium term," it adds.

The study by DKM says buses have greater flexibility in serving sprawling suburbs. A follow up report by Dublin Bus, based on the DKM work, draws attention to the growth beyond the M50.

"The migration trends in this region suggest that areas outside the M50 will have larger population increases than areas inside the M50," it states.