ECB indicates interest rate cut not on cards at this time

The European Central Bank (ECB) has dampened expectations of an early cut in interest rates, despite a fall in euro-zone inflation…

The European Central Bank (ECB) has dampened expectations of an early cut in interest rates, despite a fall in euro-zone inflation and signs that Europe's economy is slowing. Speaking in Frankfurt yesterday after a meeting of the ECB's governing council, Bank president Mr Wim Duisenberg said repeatedly that monetary policy was not easing.

"I do confirm that the monetary stance today is the same as the stance we had four weeks ago," he said.

Mr Duisenberg suggested last month that the ECB's monetary policy had shifted to a neutral stance as inflationary pressures showed signs of easing. But he insisted yesterday that the Bank believed economic growth in the euro zone could average almost 3 per cent in 2001, even if interest rates remain at their present level of 4.75 per cent.

"We do not plan to change interest rates on the basis of the information we have today," he said.

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Mr Duisenberg acknowledged that the rate of M3 (money in circulation) supply growth had eased to 5 per cent, the lowest figure since the euro was launched last year. But he said most economic indicators suggested the economic outlook in the euro zone remained good.

"The overall level of confidence in the euro area has remained high and economic indicators relating to developments around the turn of the year support the view that economic growth will remain fairly robust," he said.

Many analysts had expected Mr Duisenberg to prepare the markets yesterday for a cut in interest rates at the end of this month. The ECB's governing council will meet in Dublin in two weeks but, in the aftermath of the EU's criticism of December's Budget, an interest rate cut at that meeting could be viewed as provocative.

Market watchers interpreted yesterday's remarks as an indication that the ECB will wait until May to cut rates - probably by half a per cent.

The ECB yesterday unveiled the slogan that will be at the centre of its information campaign to familiarise Europeans with euro notes and coins. The Bank chose the slogan "The Euro - Our Money" after extensive market research. Mr Duisenberg said he hoped it would be adopted by national governments for their campaign.

The campaign will begin in earnest in September, three months before the notes and coins are introduced, and will include mass media advertising and public relations exercises. The ECB has launched a website about the notes and coins at www.euro.ecb.int, with information aimed at different interest groups.

The site will include a children's zone in which children will be encouraged to design their own notes and coins.

Mr Duisenberg said the campaign was designed to be inclusive but its introduction was accompanied by a short film that was dominated by images of white, able-bodied, prosperous-looking people. The ECB president declined to comment on a suggestion that the film reflected a view of Europe shared by few outside the Bank's luxurious headquarters in Frankfurt's Eurotower.

Denis Staunton

Denis Staunton

Denis Staunton is China Correspondent of The Irish Times