Economic uncertainty dominates forum

Growing economic uncertainty and criticism of the US Federal Reserve and other central banks dominated proceedings on the first…

Growing economic uncertainty and criticism of the US Federal Reserve and other central banks dominated proceedings on the first day of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

However, business and government leaders were divided on whether the US home loans debacle and the subsequent global banking crisis and stock market turmoil would push the world economy into recession.

The surprise 0.75 of a percentage point rate cut by the US Federal Reserve on Tuesday to soothe volatile markets pushed the prospect of a major downturn in the global economy to the top of the forum's agenda.

Addressing a press conference, former British prime minister Tony Blair said he expected economic concern to be the main topic of discussion at this year's gathering.

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"The context in which Davos takes place, especially with so many leading people from the business and finance world, it is bound to be dominated by the situation in the world economy," he said.

Mr Blair, a "co-chair" of this year's think-in, said he hoped concerns about the economic uncertainty would not distract from other important topics. Other subjects on the Davos agenda include terrorism, climate change, water scarcity, hedge funds, corruption, the Middle East and emerging markets.

Dubliner Dave O'Reilly, chairman and chief executive of oil giant Chevron, and another "co-chair" this year, said he believed the financial crisis would not have a lasting effect on the world economy. "There is a degree of pessimism that belies what's happening really," he told a press conference.

But the mood was generally gloomy as some speakers sought to assign blame for the financial crisis, while others criticised measures taken to halt the global economy toppling into recession.

Billionaire financier George Soros said central banks had "fallen asleep at the switch" and should have spotted the looming credit crisis. He said regulators had allowed markets to go too far and that the current crisis marked "the end of a 60-year period of credit expansion based on the dollar".

Earlier, Mr Soros told the BBC that US and UK recessions would be "very difficult to avoid". Supporting the Fed's rate cut, he said: "We do have to rescue markets, otherwise we would go into a depression like we did in the 1930s."

Stephen Roach, head of Asian operations at US investment bank Morgan Stanley, criticised the Fed's rate cut. "I'm sort of worried that all they did yesterday was to hit the snooze button. [THIS IS]excessive monetary accommodation that just takes us from bubble to bubble to bubble," he said.

Decoupling, the buzzword behind the theory that the rest of the world has become less dependent on the US economy, was debated at length, with one economist even suggesting that the tables had reversed to such a degree that Asian and emerging markets could possibly rescue the US from its malaise.

One of the stars of the day was Cheng Siwei, vice-chairman of the standing committee of the Chinese National People's Congress. He shared a stage with four US economists but held his own, making some bold statements. He claimed that the US had a policy to keep the dollar weak to encourage exports.

Referring to the difference between savings rates in US and China, he said: "Chinese people save today's money for tomorrow. American people spend tomorrow's money for today," drawing laughter from the crowd in the Congress Centre in Davos.

Simon Carswell

Simon Carswell

Simon Carswell is News Editor of The Irish Times