Economist warns on growth

The strong growth in the economy was the result of a rise in employment and could not continue indefinitely, a top economist …

The strong growth in the economy was the result of a rise in employment and could not continue indefinitely, a top economist has warned. Prof Brendan Walsh of UCD told the workshop that three or four more years of this growth would lead to "overheating" of the labour market.

He said that Ireland did not enter a "miraculous" phase in the 1990s and pointed to the Far Eastern economies where many economists have said the growth was based on one-off changes in behaviour which could not be repeated.

"Countries cannot indefinitely continue to increase labour force participation rates, raise workers educational standards and raise capital and labour ratios," he said.

The really phenomenal aspect of Ireland's recent performance was the rate of employment growth. The State had dramatically outperformed the EU in creating jobs in the 1990s and had done better than the US "jobs machine".

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The composition of the growth had also been very impressive. While part-time jobs for women had been growing the number of men at work and the number of both sexes in full-time employment had also grown.

According to Mr Walsh, the rapid growth in the labour force was due to the baby boomers of the 1970s entering the labour force, and the rising numbers of women at work. And it was working women which had made the biggest difference.