Economy begins to slow down after record growth in 2000, data show

Economic growth in every three-month period last year exceeded 10 per cent, according to the latest data from the Central Statistics…

Economic growth in every three-month period last year exceeded 10 per cent, according to the latest data from the Central Statistics Office.

The figures confirm earlier statistics showing that last year was a record one for growth and, analysts say, is likely to be the peak of the economic boom.

In the last three months of 2000, growth in Gross Domestic Product reached 12.1 per cent while GNP was 9 per cent as profit repatriations increased in the final quarter of the year. These figures underpin the annual figures for 2000 which were released two weeks ago and which showed annual growth of 11.5 per cent in GDP and 10.4 per cent in GNP.

Most analysts are now predicting growth of 6-7 per cent this year as the economy cools. Yesterday's figures also confirm that the rate of growth of consumer spending began to decline noticeably in the second half of last year, falling to 8 per cent, from 12 per cent, in the first half of the year.

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Consumer spending figures have not yet been released for 2001 but retail sales, which are a close approximation, have shown a marked decline. In April, retail sales in volume terms were only 1.5 per cent ahead of last year.

Overall personal consumption of goods and services fell to 8.7 per cent in the last three months of 2000 from 12 per cent in the first half of the year. In contrast current spending by central and local government rose throughout the year ending 2000 at 7.8 per cent from a rise of 3.3 per cent at the beginning of the year.

Capital investment growth also declined very markedly in the second half of 2000 to within a range of 24 per cent; this compares with 1012 per cent in the earlier months of 2000.