Ireland’s impressive jobs recovery continues to exceed expectations. After the jobless rate finally dropped below 10 per cent in spring, revised figures point to a rate below 9 per cent last month.
In some accounts, the achievement of an 8.9 per cent unemployment rate in October puts Ireland on course for a figure approaching 8.5 per cent by the end of this year and below 8 per cent a prospect by the end of 2016.
To put this in perspective, an assessment earlier this year by the International Monetary Fund put Ireland’s 2015 unemployment rate at 10 per cent with a figure of 9.1 per cent foreseen for 2016.
The actual performance bodes well for the public finances, as increased employment boosts tax revenues and eases welfare expenditure. But it also magnifies the housing shortage and increases pressure on infrastructure, particularly in Dublin. Also, employers are concerned about the return of wage pressure as workers contemplate increasing job options . This is on top of other competitiveness pressures .
Regional disparities
Three underlying trends are apparent. First, the advance centres on the creation of full-time employment as part-time declines.
Second, the jobs recovery is making big inroads into long-term unemployment. That dropped by 29,400 (or 21.1 per cent) between the third quarter of 2014 and 2015. The number in the last quarter was 109,800, a lot but down a good deal from 165,100 in 2013.
Third, regional disparities are clear. As the election looms, this helps explain the political focus on regional employment.
Dublin has the lowest unemployment rate at 8 per cent. It is more than half as high again in some regions: 12.4 per cent in the midlands; and 12.1 per cent in the south-east. Other areas below 9 per cent are the southern and eastern region (8.9 per cent), the south-west (8.4 per cent) and mid-east (8.1 per cent).
The number of unemployed people is below 200,000. For all the progress, that’s still huge. What is more, it becomes harder to match jobs with skilled workers as employment grows.
