Cantillon: Ireland a near non-event in Brexit discussions

Irish concerns have not had a big impact on referendum campaign

Peter Sutherland: said there was virtually no comment in London on the Irish angle other than when he brought it up
Peter Sutherland: said there was virtually no comment in London on the Irish angle other than when he brought it up

There's no shortage of doom-laden local assessments of the implications of a Brexit for Ireland, but far too little by way of external scrutiny on the matter.

BBC broadcaster John Humphrys speaks the truth of it when he says Irish concerns have not had a big impact on the referendum campaign.

Peter Sutherland (right) relayed the same last week, saying there was virtually no comment in London on the Irish angle other than when he brought it up.

Any scope to influence the outcome is severely limited, but the opportunity for early Government intervention was lost in the weeks of political meandering on the next administration. One of the first questions for the incoming cabinet will be whether and how to transmit Irish observations as the campaign intensifies.

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There is more. The consensus in international economic circles is that a Brexit would inflict deep damage on the British economy. This is discussed ad nauseam in an assortment of lengthy analyses, the differences between them centring more on the degree or range of likely losses. The unavoidable result for Ireland is clear: if the British economy goes down so too does the Irish economy.

But detailed discussion is absent. There’s little in the latest European Commission forecast, although it alludes to external “uncertainty” in its bullish projection for Ireland.

The same goes for the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, which warned last week that Britons would pay a heavy “Brexit tax” for many years if they repudiate the EU.

Ireland is an OECD member with strategic interest in the referendum so that begs the question if it has examined the implications for Ireland of a Brexit. Apparently not. “No such work was undertaken during this study, and there are no plans at present to analyse the potential impact of a Brexit on Ireland,” says the OECD. On the all-too-scary Brexit panorama, this puts Ireland somewhere between non-event and sideshow. Should we be surprised?