The latest CSO figures from the Quarterly National Household Survey are disappointing as they may indicate the boom in employment growth is running out of puff. We shall see. One quarter's figure does not a summer make, so to speak.
There is another aspect to the debate, however. The QNHS figure on employment is supposed to be a key, reliable figure on which observers of the economy can base their opinions. However, there has been a difficulty over recent times because of a change in the way the figure for the agricultural sector is collected and the CSO figures for agriculture come, therefore, with an associated warning.
Yesterday Paddy Healy brother of the Workers and Unemployed Action Group TD, Seamus, was among those attending the CSO's presentation of its figures, and queried whether the rise in the numbers employed was as strong over the past year as the agency's figures suggested.
He wondered whether, because their social welfare benefit had run out, and other reasons, people were being designated as self-employed when in fact there was little work for them to do. In other words, the rise in the amount of work being done might not be equal to the growth in the numbers being designated as employed.
The numbers employed in agriculture increased by 14.9 per cent, or 14,400, in the year to the end of the first quarter. (Professional and scientific activities were up 11,800 and accommodation and food services were up 13,500, while wholesale and retail trade were down 5,900, financial, insurance and real estate were down 1,900, and human health and social work were down 3,200.)
The number of self-employed people was up 14,900, or 4.9 per cent, over the year, while the number of employees was up 28,300, or 1.9 per cent. (Public-sector employment was down 2,500 over the year.)
The CSO statisticians said in response to Healy that there was a correlation between the rising numbers in agriculture,and the rise in the numbers self-employed, and that one would expect this for the sector. But given the health warning that comes with the agriculture figures, this could leave room for lingering worry.
Another notable aspect of yesterday’s figures was that while full-time employment was up 3.3 per cent over the year, part-time employment was down 0.8 per cent. Perhaps the latter was due to the fragile performance of the retail sector.
