BELFAST BRIEFING:International coverage of unrest is exactly the kind of publicity the North does not need

IT MAY be just one day, but there is an uneasy sense of anticipation in the air in Northern Ireland until after July 12th. Emotions tend to run high, which means the build-up, economically speaking, can be one of the most dangerous times of the year.

No matter how successful investment agencies have been at selling the North as an excellent location for business to flourish for 11 months of the year, come July its international reputation is once again up in the air.

In the past, tensions in both communities unfortunately manifested themselves as unrest on the streets of towns and cities across the region.

Recently, there has been a depressing return to form in this respect. Disheartening features of the old Northern Ireland – riots, burnt-out cars and clashes with police, regardless of which side of the community they originate from – have made an unwelcome reappearance.

In some areas plagued by long-term unemployment and crying out for investment opportunities, it appears there are people with an overwhelming desire to shoot themselves in the foot.

It is no coincidence that some areas which suffer from proportionally high youth unemployment – one in five young people under the age of 25 can be out of work – are also flashpoint areas where unrest has a tendency to flare up.

The inevitable international media coverage this attracts is exactly the kind of publicity the North does not need.

How much it costs in terms of negative publicity has not been quantified, but it is unlikely to help persuade a nervous inward investor to sign on the dotted line when it comes to a possible project in the North.

This July, the impact of this type of publicity is even worse because it takes place against a grim economic background.

The economy finds itself in one of the worst positions since the peace process. Research published this week shows the economy is in the grip of a suffocating downturn.

According to Ulster Bank, there was a sharp decline in business levels in the private sector for the 19th consecutive month in June. Firms are shedding jobs at an increasing pace, businesses are struggling to secure new orders and the bottom line is that profits are disappearing.

Marry this with the fact that unemployment has soared to the level it was at when the Good Friday agreement was signed, and it is easy to assume that the promised peace dividend has gone up in smoke.

But the reality is that Northern Ireland now possesses the potential to transform its economic prospects in a way it could not before the peace process. In the 10 years prior to the global economic downturn, the North attracted a wealth of high-calibre investors which, in turn, have created thousands of jobs locally.

Northern Ireland also has a local, committed Executive in a position to create opportunities for the economy by exploring innovative tax arrangements, including the possibility of setting a new rate of corporation tax for the North.

Just as important as the physical transformations that have taken place has been the conversion of people from doubters to believers when it comes to the economy. It may have taken a knocking recently, but there is a genuine belief that it can be better. With a little luck, some imaginative thinking and the right tools, Northern Ireland can build a better economy. And where better to look for inspiration at the moment than the North’s latest hero – US Open winner Rory McIlroy?

Former US president Bill Clinton once said golf courses were one of Northern Ireland’s few natural resources.

The North’s Tourism Minister, Arlene Foster, and senior industry experts believe golf could help grow Northern Ireland’s tourism revenue into a £1 billion-a-year industry by the end of the decade.

So instead of photographs and television footage of burning cars and angry youths being flashed around the world, there are other photo opportunities that the North needs to be working on.

Perhaps one showing Clinton teeing off the opening shot of a major competition at Royal Portrush Golf Club flanked by McIlroy and his predecessor as US Open champion, Graeme McDowell, would be a good one to start with.