An aphorism attributed to Jean-Claude Juncker, Luxembourg’s premier for 18 years before he took command of the European Commission, sums up the riddle of political leadership in hard times: “We all know what to do, but we don’t know how to get re-elected once we have done it.”

This is the unavoidable curse of the reformist. Doing the right thing in a profound economic crisis presents a dual challenge, confronting the slippery task to hand and maintaining support for the endeavour. Double trouble. Just ask anyone on the long list of former European leaders who have fallen since the crash.

This brings us rather neatly to prime minister Pedro Passos Coelho of Portugal, who looks set to form a new minority government after winning an election on Sunday but losing his parliamentary majority. Ouch.

Recall that Portugal – after Greece and Ireland – was the third country to receive a euro-zone bailout. Although Passos Coelho becomes the first centre-right leader to be re-elected after executing such a programme, the loss of his majority shows just how difficult it is to implement swingeing cuts and tax measures in political real time.

The lesson is not lost in the Irish setting, where Taoiseach Enda Kenny must soon decide whether to go to the country in November or wait until February. The question Kenny must ask is whether an early election enhances or diminishes his chances of achieving what lay beyond the grasp of his Portuguese counterpart, re-election plus a parliamentary majority.

Passos Coelho must now contemplate concessions to the opposition Socialists. Although financial markets were unperturbed, some observers in Lisbon say the outcome heralds instability and impasse.

However that works out in coming weeks, it will not alter the Government’s “stability” mantra in Dublin once the campaign proper starts. Only then will the Juncker maxim be put to the test again.