Employment is expected to rise by approximately 50,000 in the year ending April 1998, according to a new review of labour market trends by FAS. The labour force will grow by 30,000 next year, so this should lead to a reduction of 20,000 in the numbers of unemployed. But the report warns that the actual reduction will depend on the number of emigrants who return to take up jobs at home.

Nevertheless the report, which has been seen by The Irish Times, says that unemployment should fall from the present 9.9 per cent to "slightly over 9 per cent" by the end of the year. Labour shortages could increase in some sectors.

FAS itself has had a 20 per cent increase in the number of requests for people to fill job vacancies in the year ending November 1997. The report says that shortages could become particularly severe in manual and unskilled service occupations.

For the first time the number of long-term unemployment fell significantly in the year ending April 1997, from 103,000 to 86,000. This suggests that growth is finally beginning to benefit the most marginalised members of the community.

The report predicts that growth "will continue to spread across the occupational spectrum, with employment expanding in skilled and semi-skilled manual jobs and in routine service jobs, as well in the professional and managerial occupations which require higher skills and qualifications".

It adds: "The main increases in labour supply are concentrated among people with higher levels of qualification, with the numbers in the labour force who have not completed secondary education continuing to fall. The decline in unemployment will therefore be accompanied by further tightening in the labour market for manual workers and for less skilled service workers."

The report, which was prepared by FAS economist Mr Terry Kelleher, says that all the indicators suggest that growth in the coming year will be as strong as in 1997, when employment rose by 41,000. In the 12 months to April 1997, industrial employment grew by 31,000 to 386,000, and employment in services rose by 14,000 to 818,000.

Agricultural employment fell by 4,000 to 134,000, and public sector employment fell by 4,000 to 297,000 over the same period. Private sector employment rose by 48,000 to 866,000 and the number of people on Community Employment schemes rose by 1,000 to 41,000.

The available indicators since April 1997 suggest that employment growth has continued to surge. In the 12 months to September, for instance, employment in the construction industry rose by 9 per cent, says the report. No detailed figures are available on manufacturing, but output

trends and "the continued strong flow of start-up projects are indicative of further employment gains in the sector.

"Vacancy data also confirm that employment remains strong. Up to the end of November, job vacancies notified to FAS employment service offices were up almost 20 per cent on the same period in 1996. The MSL consultants index of executive and professional vacancies advertised in the national press also showed a year-on-year increase of 10 per cent for the first nine months of 1997. This latter index has been particularly strong since mid-year, with vacancies advertised in the third quarter showing an increase of almost 40 per cent on the same period in 1996."

The report says that, while female participation in the workforce has risen much more sharply than that of males since the late 1980s, male employment has picked up again since 1994. This is partly due to the rise in employment in construction and manufacturing.

Skilled and semi-skilled manual occupations have shown a 27.5 per cent increase in employment over the period 1992 to 1997, the sharpest increase of any occupational group. FAS has increased supports for apprenticeships to help meet the surge in demand for manual and technical skills. Other occupations which reported sharp increases in employment levels over the past five years were the professional and managerial occupations, which were up 24 per cent, services, communications and sales, up 20 per cent and clerical occupations up 12.5 per cent.

Despite an increase in the labour force of 135,000 between 1993 and 1997, employment rose by 186,000, so that unemployment fell 51,000 over the same period.