A reduction of 10 per cent in sheepmeat production in the EU this year is predicted in the latest figures collated by An Bord Bia, the food board.

Not surprisingly, the biggest fall in production will be in Britain and Northern Ireland, where a 26 per cent reduction is anticipated because of the foot-andmouth cull. But smaller reductions are expected in Ireland, Portugal, the Netherlands and Spain, with only Italy showing a slight increase.

Consumption of sheepmeat in the EU will also decline by about 4 per cent this year, with the main impact being in the French market because of higher prices.

Bord Bia's forecast says EU production of sheepmeat will be more than one million tonnes, compared with 1.153 million tonnes last year. Consumption will drop by 13 per cent in France, the biggest market for sheepmeat, and overall self-sufficiency will fall to 76 per cent, compared with 81 per cent last year.

The foot-and-mouth crisis will have a long-term effect on production in Britain and Northern Ireland, where up to 2.25 million sheep have been culled. A further one million will be slaughtered under the Welfare Disposal scheme, which provides for the slaughter of animals which cannot be moved from farms because of the disease outbreak.

The majority of these sheep will be ewes, which means that the productive breeding flock will decline by 12 per cent this year. Combined with lower lambing rates, it is estimated that the 2001 lamb crop could be as much as 17 per cent down on last year and more of that crop will have to be used for breeding than would normally be the case as farmers start to restock.

No further exports of live sheep from Britain are expected this year, although Northern Ireland may be allowed to export. Overall UK exports are expected to drop by 85 per cent.

France will remain the principal market for Irish sheepmeat, taking 80 per cent of production, although French imports overall are set to decline by around 24 per cent. If there is any shortfall in the market due to suspended British exports - Britain was a major supplier to France - New Zealand and, to a lesser extent, Ireland, are likely to meet that demand.