Everything is rosy at ESB ... for the moment

Any Irish chief executive reviewing the following statistics would be more than happy with his lot: more than 70 per cent market…

Any Irish chief executive reviewing the following statistics would be more than happy with his lot: more than 70 per cent market share; 85 per cent of all industry output; turnover rising each year by about 10 per cent and record dividends to shareholders of almost €70 million.

For Padraig McManus, ESB chief executive, it must be satisfying to preside over such a robust scenario.

But after 32 years working at the State-owned energy company, Mr McManus will know things are never as rosy as they appear. Take a few other statistics and things look a little different: debt rising by over 70 per cent; annual costs of over €2 billion; average salary and pension cost per employee of €67,000 and a pension deficit of €511 million.

When you factor in a restless workforce, a deputy chairman in dispute with the firm and a Minister prepared to comprehend the break-up of the company and things quickly lose their sheen.

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While all of these problems cannot be taken lightly, the ESB has other concerns on its collective mind.

One of these is the opening of the electricity market on February 19th. Finally after years of monopolistic control, the whole Irish electricity market will be in play.

However there is unlikely to be too many frowns in ESB headquarters come February 19th. The company is so dominant in the Irish market it is hard to see who is going to take it on. According to the Commission for Energy Regulation the sector produces about 5,500 megawatts of power.

Viridian via its Huntstown power station in north Co Dublin chips in about 350 megawatts, a peat burning company called Edenderry Power Ltd produces about 118 megawatts, while the wind energy company Airtricity chips in about 100 megawatts. That is it really.

Even the two new plants scheduled to come on stream in the next few years - Aughinish Alumina and Tynagh Energy - are contracted to the ESB for 10 years.

So when it comes to dominance it has the market cornered. But if you take actual customers and not capacity, things are a little more complex. It is estimated the company has - by volume - between 60 and 70 per cent of the market among industrial and corporate customers, known as the "eligible market".

While ESB and its competitor Viridian are nervous about disclosing their customer's names, there is no doubt Viridian has stolen a sizeable chunk of the ESB's customer base. It even trumpeted winning the contract of Mr Dempsey's Department.

But while the two companies will battle each other for the large industrials, is there a gap in the residential market where the average two month household electricity bill is almost €120.

Is this high enough to encourage a widespread switchover in the months and years ahead? The experience in Britain is that it will take a long time before any switching worth mentioning takes place.

The ESB meanwhile is continuing to throw off cash and although its debt levels will impose serious re-payment obligations in the years ahead, its presence in every segment of the electricity markets would seem to guarantee a healthy future (the company is involved in generation, distribution and supply).

But in the light of the recent comments by the Minister, Mr Dempsey, maybe this is even under threat. Apart from the growing problem of the €511 million pension hole and the alleged sidelining this week of deputy chairman Mr Joe LaCumbre, top management in ESB has two central objectives in the years ahead.

The first objective is the preservation of the company as a vertically integrated utility. ESB managers are proud of all parts of their operation - ESB Generation, ESB Networks, ESB Supply and while it has a detached relationship with it, ESB National Grid.

While this gives it real scale in the Republic and probably a valuation of at least €4 billion, in European terms the ESB is a minnow. The company's argument, repeated this week privately following Mr Dempsey's remarks, is that breaking up the ESB will reduce it to insignificance.

However the management is realistic and recently tabled a proposal to sell off or lease out some of the generating plants. This was not well received by unions who believe that once one plant goes, the rest will soon follow.

The other central tenet of the McManus era is that the ESB, despite its huge scale and dominance, cannot grow any further in the Irish market.

Opportunities are now abroad and consequently huge energy and management time now goes into the activities of ESB International. However while this subsidiary is a successful operation and well regarded in the electricity industry, the projects it tends to get involved in are capital intensive, long term and rarely provide a quick pay-off.

Consequently while the ESB seeks to be a big international player, its bread-and-butter still comes from this island. In 2003 turnover from the Irish market came in at €2.2 billion with UK and Europe only able to chip in €156 million. This will not change for many years one presumes, although the company is building up an impressive list of overseas projects.

So presuming the international business can be fired up a little more, presuming the pension issue can finally be resolved (the company will probably have to chip in two-thirds of the extra pension contribution with staff covering the rest) and presuming it can meet its debt obligations, the company under Mr McManus should be able to ride out any storm. Unless of course Mr Dempsey manages to throw a spanner in the works.