Fast moves on $700bn in 'toxic' mortgages expected

THE BUSH administration will move swiftly in coming days to start putting in place a programme to buy $700 billion (€507 billion…

THE BUSH administration will move swiftly in coming days to start putting in place a programme to buy $700 billion (€507 billion) in "toxic" mortgage assets from vulnerable banks in a controversial effort to jump-start the US economy.

After the House of Representatives granted approval for the measure on the second attempt, US president George Bush was careful to stress that it will take "some time" for the legislation to have its full impact on the economy.

Although Mr Bush describes it as the minimum required to avert a long and painful recession, it is widely acknowledged in the markets that the initiative is no magic bullet.

As attention shifts to Wall Street from Washington after a fortnight of frantic political manoeuvring, the restoration of confidence and stability within the financial system will take months to achieve.

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Trust and confidence are scarce and no one is forecasting recovery soon. Even after the turmoil of recent weeks, further bank failures are widely feared.

Quite how bad conditions are in the US economy was underlined in new figures out yesterday, which showed that 159,000 jobs were eliminated in September.

It was the worst month of retrenchment in five years. What is more, the figures did not reflect the numerous jobs lost in the financial turmoil that has scuppered once-mighty institutions and led the government to opt for the bailout.

So what happens next? While the government has signalled its intention to hire between five and 10 professional asset managers to buy the securities, the first auctions might not take place for another four weeks.

In the meantime, institutions that may wish to take part in the process will have to consider that the price of participation includes limits on top-level pay and public disclosure on the internet of the deals that they make with the treasury. Such conditions are very unappealing for Wall Street.

Therefore, it may be that institutions who feel they can ride out the turmoil might try to avoid the government route altogether.

At one reading, that might reduce the government's overall exposure.

However, it would be more difficult for the government to generate a return on the scheme if companies whose illiquid assets were less toxic than others shunned the scheme.

While much remains unclear about the actual mechanics of the scheme and the vexed question of how assets will be valued, the muted response of the stock market yesterday says rather a lot about the difficulties foreseen down the line.

"The government bailout was critical to market confidence but the reality of its long-term implementation challenges will become apparent soon," Tom Priore, chief of boutique investment firm ICP Capital, told The Irish Times.

"It will take years to scrub down bank balance sheets and attract the additional equity capital needed to kick-start lending capacity."

Nevertheless, the 777-point drop in the Dow Jones when the House voted down the original proposal last week stands as a stark illustration of the severity of fear in the market at present.

Ben Bernanke, chairman of the Federal Reserve, is said to have prompted outright terror among senior legislators when the bailout was first mooted last Thursday week. "If we don't do this, we may not have an economy on Monday."

Although adoption of the bailout by Congress has taken the US economy away from the precipice, the path to recovery will be long and hardy. The crisis isn't over yet. Not nearly.

Governor of California Arnold Schwarzenegger wrote to treasury secretary Henry Paulson two days ago to warn that his state could run out of money within weeks without a $7 billion loan from the government.

California is not alone. In the public sector and in private business, the US economy is on its knees.

Arthur Beesley

Arthur Beesley

Arthur Beesley is Current Affairs Editor of The Irish Times