Free cash or sound investment?

"Free money" was never going to be the slogan of the information campaign for the sale of Telecom Eireann shares

"Free money" was never going to be the slogan of the information campaign for the sale of Telecom Eireann shares. The real slogan, "It's your chance to share in the future of Telecom Eireann. Join in", sends a warmer, participative message, apparently completely unconnected with making money.

The information campaign must be judged to be a success so far, since nearly one million potential investors have been registered. Anecdotally, people are asking, "Should I buy?" "Yes - for the free money", is one answer. Seriously, you must buy in the initial offer. As usual with these initial share offers, the shares are to be priced so that initial investors can expect to see an immediate appreciation in their share price of perhaps 10-15 per cent. Put in £1,000 today, get £1,100 tomorrow. This is the most certain aspect of the Telecom share offer. It is not absolutely certain, of course. Barring a major financial shock the Telecom shares will trade at a higher price than the initial offer price once trading begins. "Free money" should perhaps be "almost certainly, free money".

But free to whom? The other way of looking at it is that we, as the State, already own Telecom. By selling a portion of Telecom now, most of the true market value of the company is going to the Exchequer. The remainder will go to investors who buy shares in the initial offer at the effectively discounted price, which then rises to its true market value.

You must buy, because if you don't, you are selling an asset for less than its true value. It would be free money for someone else. To the citizen, there is no free money. Buy the shares to get maximum cash value from an asset you already own. This macro-argument doesn't register as much as "buy for £1,000 one day and sell for £1,100 the next". "Should I hold the Telecom shares?" is a very different question. The information campaign encourages us to do so. How are ordinary people to decide this? I don't know whether Iona Technologies, AIB, CRH or Qualceram is a better investment to hold than Telecom Eireann. We will be told a lot about the privatised telecoms sector in Europe in coming weeks and Telecom Eireann's results are due at the end of the month. But this is only the beginning of the analysis required for an investment decision.

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The decision to invest in a particular company's shares for the medium to long term is not an easy one. A lot of expensive time is spent analysing this decision in investment management companies. Professional fund managers argue that individual investors who are not expert in investing do best to place their investments in balanced portfolios, professionally managed. Ordinary people also recognise the simple principle of not putting all their eggs in one basket. The Telecom basket is no exception. The Telecom Eireann privatisation is important because it paves the way for a much needed realignment of State assets. Why does the Government want so many retail investors involved? It boils down, in my view, to the Government wanting political cover for the possibility that the share prices of privatised State companies may well rise.

The Government does not want to be accused of selling the family silver to foreigners and institutions, and cheaply at that. The way to get political cover is to see that the gains from share price increases are spread widely.

But it should not be the Government's intention to make stockpickers of us all. This would be a lot clearer if Telecom, Aer Rianta, Aer Lingus and the ESB were all privatised simultaneously rather than sequentially. Should I go for the ESB or Telecom, Aer Rianta or Aer Lingus? Who knows? Go for them all for the sake of a shareholder democracy, is not an answer. A better answer is to let our pension funds invest in a balanced portfolio.

There is a tacit acceptance in the Telecom process that negative public impressions of the role and nature of institutional investors cannot be overcome. This is paradoxical, considering successive governments' tax policy make an investment by way of a pension fund contribution the most tax efficient option. Anyone who has money to spare, has a pension fund, and has not used up the 15 per cent of earnings limit would be better off putting money into their pension scheme, which will take up Telecom, ESB, Aer Lingus, Aer Rianta if they are truly good investments. What money? That £1,100 of course.

Oliver O'Connor is managing editor, Fintel Publications