Growth may breach 10% after four-year surge in economy

The economy grew by almost 10 per cent last year, according to official figures

The economy grew by almost 10 per cent last year, according to official figures. The fourth successive year of strong growth means the economy has now expanded by one third in the years from 1993 to 1997.

According to the CSO, Gross Domestic Product grew by 9.5 per cent in 1997 and Gross National Product by 7.7 per cent. GDP, or the total value of goods and services produced in the economy, came to £48 billion. The corresponding figure for GNP - which takes account of the £6 billion repatriated by foreign multinationals and some other transfers - was £42 billion. The level of repatriation represents a 21.4 per cent increase on 1996 or about £36,000 for every person with a job.

The growth rate is slightly less than many economists had predicted but is still remarkable in European terms. And the buoyant growth boosted wages as well as Government spending.

Employee pay was up 10.2 per cent in 1997, although about half of this was due to increased numbers in employment. However, this still left an average 5 per cent pay rise for many employees, well in excess of the limit of 2.5 per cent provided for in Partnership 2000. Profits rose by more than 15 per cent.

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Government expenditure also accelerated sharply to 4.8 per cent from 1.6 per cent in 1996, mostly due to the decision to bring forward large elements of expenditure into last year. Domestic demand made a significant contribution to overall growth, according to Bloxham economist, Mr Alan McQuaid as low interest rates continued to boost confidence and activity in both personal and investment spending.

The pick-up in economies across Europe and the fall in the value of the pound also boosted exports, which rose 16.9 per cent in 1997. Imports were also strong with an annual growth rate of 15.6 per cent.

The CSO said it would be revising the data in October when it has to file statistics for the EU. Director, Mr Bill Keating said this was likely to add a little bit to growth and to our EU budget contributions.

On the GDP expenditure basis which most economists use for their forecasts he said it could breach 10 per cent.

Dr Dan McLaughlin of ABN Amro and Mr Oliver Mangan of AIB said they are both expecting upward revisions to a number of categories.

According to the CSO, personal consumption was up 6.3 per cent in 1997, although this figure was questioned by Dr McLaughlin who said it would normally be closer to retail sales which were running at over 8 per cent.

Mr Mangan also questioned a sharp deceleration in investment in building and construction, which he said was hard to square with data on housing completions and employment in the sector.