Have another cream bun for the economy

Two four-day weeks back to back was a welcome occurrence and one I could definitely get used to

Two four-day weeks back to back was a welcome occurrence and one I could definitely get used to. We took advantage of the break and went to Killarney for a couple of days (much to the disgust of the cat who still hasn't forgiven us for putting him into kennels).

We had a great time but I spent far too much time in the restaurant and not enough time in the hotel's sauna for my own good. Since the water in the swimming-pool was cooler than you'd think, whereas the jacuzzi was wonderfully warm, there was no contest. Besides which, sitting in the jacuzzi and looking out over the snow-covered mountains was wonderful.

The good news from the south-west is that the tourism industry seems to be thriving. The hotel was packed with guests from Britain and the US, as well as a smattering of German and French travellers. They were packing out the shops too, buying Aran jumpers and waxed jackets and, no doubt, doing all sorts of good things for the Kerry economy. We drove to the

Gap of Dunloe where, amid pelting hail, amiable men asked us if we'd like to take a horse and cart trip. Some hardy souls were convinced but I'm from the city and there was no way I was going anywhere other than Kate Kearney's Cottage for a drop of something to warm the insides.

READ MORE

It must be strange to spend all your time working in a tourist resort, being polite to people who are contemplating strolling up the snow-covered Reeks in a pair of leather shoes and persuading them to have a cup of tea and to buy a painted leprechaun instead. Not that there was any fear of us trying to hike up a mountain.

As if I hadn't done enough damage in the calorie stakes, I went out with my sisters on Sunday night as a belated birthday treat. We went to the Indian Brasserie in Rathfarnham where you can eat as much as you like and where the owner, Samir Sapru, having completely embarrassed me by bringing out a dessert with candles and singing happy birthday (much to the amusement of everyone else in the place) then shaved his profit margin still further by plying us with sambuccas.

Anyway, my reckless spending over the last week or so will undoubtedly be reflected in the strength of this month's economic figures. The fact that the CPI rose by 0.5 per cent in March sent a frisson of fear through the markets. Pretty much every category showed an increase food, due to increases in beef, fresh vegetables, desserts and icecreams; clothing and footwear were higher due to seasonal price trends; and transport costs were higher too.

You'd have to assume that the exchange rate effect is something to do with it. Empirical evidence would point to the potential truth of this the breakfast cereal I buy has gone up a whopping 20 per cent in the last month. The OECD is predicting Irish inflation at around 3.4 per cent for 1998 and 3.2 per cent in 1999.

Meanwhile, in the US, it's a different story. Producer prices were down 0.3 while consumer prices were unchanged.

The most interesting news out of the US is the $166 billion (£120 billion) merger between Travelers and Citicorp which pretty much caught the market by surprise. Then, on Monday, BankAmerica and Nationsbank announced that they would merge. I think I once mentioned in this column that I believed one giant corporation owned everything maybe this is it.

The new entity will be known as Citigroup and will have more than 100 million customers. The immediate effect of the merger was to drive up the prices of bank shares on the basis that all US banks will have to make acquisitions or merge in order to compete.

I'm not convinced about big being beautiful. For years I believed it was, but I can't help feeling that huge organisations have more potential for both inefficiencies and lack of consumer care. Of course, all of these mergers result in job insecurity for employees who have no idea where they'll fit into the plan. It's not easy to sing the company song when you're in a big chorus.

The company song in Korea took a turn for the better, though, with its recent US dollar global bond issue. The original amount of the issue was to be $3 billion, but investor demand meant that they were able to issue another $1 billion. I would think that the Koreans are feeling a lot better about themselves and their economy since that vote of investor confidence. Of course the spread they paid over Treasuries was still significantly higher than it would have been this time last year, but nothing like as high as it would have been back in January.

From a country that was just about bankrupt, it has managed to do a remarkable job of reshaping its image to have investors hungry for bonds. One investor was quoted as calling it a "sensational comeback story" while another said that the reality was "Korea is a first-class industrial power". Some buyers said that they were expecting Korean debt to be upgraded, which would increase the value of the bonds.

While the country's debt can, no doubt, be upgraded in the future, the ratings agencies will probably err on the side of caution given the bad press they endured when the problems in the Far East surfaced. After all, credit ratings fell about nine notches back in the last quarter of 1997. In more good news for the country the current account surplus in March was $4 billion up from $3.9 billion in February and $3 billion in January.

So, despite the serious problems of the region, and on-going worries in Japan there is a growing body of opinion that the hurdles are being overcome.

I'd like to be convinced of that but it's still only six months since October. Still, we can but hope that, if they have turned the corner, there isn't a brick wall facing them.

Sheila O'Flanagan is a fixed income specialist at NCB Stockbrokers