Inflation at 5% on fuel hike

The rise in the Consumer Price Index, from 4

The rise in the Consumer Price Index, from 4.8 per cent in October, brings the inflation rate back to July levels, with overall prices having risen by 0.6 per cent between October and November.

The figures prompted disappointment from the Irish Congress of Trade Unions (Ictu), with its economic adviser Paul Sweeney saying inflation would "influence" the group when it enters wage negotiations in 2008.

Mr Sweeney said the failure to increase tax rates and credits in line with inflation in the Budget would mean a reduction in earnings for most workers next year, "unless there is a substantial rise under the next tranche of Towards 2016".

Small business lobby Isme took an opposing view, warning that further increases in wage rates "similar to the last couple of years" would prompt "disastrous consequences" for jobs. The latest inflation figures point to increasing pressures for households as Christmas approaches.

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A breakdown of the numbers showed that a 5.4 per cent monthly decrease in the price of electricity was not enough to offset increases in most other fuels. Petrol rose by 4.9 per cent, while diesel rose by 7.8 per cent.

Food, which accounts for 11 per cent of the overall price inflation basket, posted a 5.6 per cent monthly rise in November, with basic foodstuffs like flour and eggs driving the increase.

Economists Dermot O'Leary and Deirdre Ryan of Goodbody Stockbrokers described trends in food prices as "concerning".

"Given recent price rises are being led by non-substitutable staple items such as cereal and dairy products, the marked price rises are having a direct impact on household spending power," they noted. Flour prices increased by 20 per cent in the month and were ahead by 42 per cent year on year. Sweets and chocolate rose by 5.7 per cent between October and November.

"The latest data highlight how Ireland's exposure to external factors is once again playing a key role in domestic inflationary trends," they added.

Pat McArdle, chief economist with Ulster Bank, predicted yesterday that inflation would "ease back marginally" for this month before averaging at 3.5 per cent next year, helped by base effects.

The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices, the EU-wide measure, gave a reading of 3.5 per cent last month, up from 3 per cent in October.

Úna McCaffrey

Úna McCaffrey

Úna McCaffrey is Digital Features Editor at The Irish Times.