Comment: This week, the Construction Industry Federation in its Mid-Term Review and Outlook, forecasted a construction output of 21 billion for 2003. This is equivalent to 15 per cent of GDP.
The forecast is surprisingly good having regard to the general economic situation, however, it is clear that the industry's output is buoyed by a vibrant housing market. More than 60,000 housing units will be built during 2003. This is a great performance by any standards, but unfortunately it masks a decline of 13 per cent in the key private non-residential sector.
The office, industrial and hotel sectors continue to decline and private sector investment in non-residential projects is now back to 1997 levels. Overall, construction output will be down by 1 per cent in volume terms, which is equivalent to a loss of 200 million worth of work for the industry.
Looking forward, it is expected that housing supply has now peaked and we anticipate housing demand will gradually decline in the medium term with projected output at 48,000 housing units annually up to 2006 and 42,000 units from 2006 to 2011. It is also expected that general contracting will not recover until economic growth in the economy is re-established.
Building and civil engineering contractors have invested heavily in people, plant and production systems during the past five years. There is now a spare capacity in the industry and a golden opportunity exists to address Ireland's infrastructure deficit and to maximise our benefit from the expected recovery in the global economy.
Ireland's infrastructure deficit transcends a range of public infrastructure, including roads, public transport, environmental infrastructure and housing, and is one of the key contributory factors to the deepening erosion of national competitiveness. Notwithstanding the investment during the first three years of the National Development Plan, Ireland was ranked 28th out of 29 countries for infrastructure in the 2003 World Competitiveness Yearbook.
As we approach the mid point in the implementation of the NDP, it is clear the physical delivery of projects is behind schedule in a number of priority areas and the physical targets of the plan will not be achieved unless there is a strong commitment on behalf of the Government to find the required resources.
In the years ahead Ireland's success in the global market will be dependent on the quality and competitiveness of our economic and social infrastructure, and while substantial progress is in sight in some areas such as national roads and water services, there are other areas where we have failed. Our inability to provide waste infrastructure or to implement a modal transportation shift are pertinent examples.
Of all of the NDP investment programmes, the provision of solid waste infrastructure is the most disappointing. The Regional Operational Programmes envisaged an investment of 825 million, of which 571 million would come from the private sector through Public Private Partnerships. This investment has failed to materialise with the result that many areas of the State will have no disposal capacity within five years unless action is taken now to provide a range of infrastructure including material recovery facilities, composters, digesters, thermal treatment and residual landfill.
Our previous status as a low cost, low level of service waste economy has changed to one of high cost and low level of service. A survey carried out by the CIF has shown that landfill gate charges in Ireland range between 125 a tonne in Donegal and 215 a tonne in Cork. This is almost three times the average charge for landfill or incineration in Europe and places Ireland at a competitive disadvantage to trading competitors.
There is concern that a shortage of waste infrastructure and high costs are a deterrent to indigenous and inward investment and are an effective constraint on economic growth. It is estimated that an investment of at least 2.5 billion is required to provide all of the necessary waste infrastructure. This investment will not materialise unless concerted action is taken to overcome the "not in my backyard" syndrome.
Virtually all waste infrastructure projects from the humble bottle bank to incinerators have been opposed. The protracted nature of our planning system and the cost incurred in the face of endless opposition is deterring would be investors from a sector which is vital to the economic and environmental wellbeing of the State.
The Minister for the Environment and Local Government, Mr Martin Cullen, has expressed his determination to deal with this issue. He deserves support. Politicians who seek advantage by blanket opposition to the provision of waste infrastructure do so to the detriment of the environment and economy.
Don O'Sullivan is director of main contracting at the Construction Industry Federation