The value of Irish exports is expected to rise from £35 billion to £40 billion in 1998, according to the Irish Exporters' Association (IEA). But IEA chief executive, Mr Colum MacDonnell, has warned that despite the bullish forecasts, the uncertainty throughout Asia is a cause for concern for Irish exporters. "It would be a mistake to think that Ireland's export performance will be insulated from such events," he said yesterday.
Its new year forecast predicts very strong growth in the pharmaceutical and electronics sectors, including data processing machinery and scientific instruments, over the next 12 months. Irish-owned industries, meanwhile, are expected to show more modest growth, although beef and dairy markets are likely to strengthen in 1998, with the IEA indicating that beef exports will manage to recover much of the ground lost in 1996.
Total Irish exports were relatively weak in the early months of 1997 but managed to pick up in the second half following an economic recovery throughout the European Union.
There are signs that Britain, the US and the Netherlands will grow strongly in the coming months, while export growth in Germany and France will continue to be sluggish.
And while signalling potential problems from the fallout in Asia for Irish exporters, Mr MacDonnell pointed to the relatively small number of bilateral trade agreements Ireland has with these regions.
"We are all in the same global market. Price reductions by Asian suppliers resulting from depreciated currencies will have a very serious impact on many Irish export operations in the liberalised global marketplace," according to Mr MacDonnell.
He also warned that suggestions that the pound should be revalued before entering European Monetary Union are "seriously misguided" and would create a "permanent handicap" for Irish exporters.
"For some time now, it has been obvious that the Irish currency, pulled upward in the slipstream of sterling, has been over valued. This has had a serious negative impact on profits of exporters supplying European markets, and is also reflected in our poor export performance to some European countries."
The IEA has also called on the Government to initiate action at European level to outlaw disruptions to trade within the European Union. "The past year has seen our trade disrupted by the actions of the French and Irish road hauliers. Obviously the road hauliers problems must be addressed but Europe's governments cannot tolerate serious disruptions of the supply chain," Mr MacDonnell warned.
