The hit-list of Irish food companies whose exports to the US will be subjected to 100 per cent tariffs in the latest twist in the hormone-treated beef war with Europe will be disclosed "within 10 days".
The US is considering a move to maximise the effect of sanctions by deploying a "carousel system" of penalties whereby, for example, a range of products would be in the line of fire for a six-month period and then, without notice, another range would then be targeted for the next period, it has emerged. This would have a multiplier effect and damage more exporters, but may be pursued in an effort to bring the dispute to a head quickly.
Pork exporters, it is understood, remain most vulnerable to sanctions, though they could also be extended to other sectors here. Confectionery companies (particularly biscuit-makers) and glue manufacturers are considered most likely to be penalised.
While £10 million in annual exports is a small fraction of Irish food business in the US, the tariffs could hit the pork sector at a time of vulnerability and low prices, while many small food companies have niche markets in North America, the loss of which could threaten their future.
At a press conference in Washington yesterday - which was transmitted to US embassies in Europe to signal US intent - the key figure on the US side, Ambassador Mr Peter Scher, special trade negotiator, said that when sanctions from the banana dispute with the EU were factored in, he had no doubt some $300 million in tariffs "will have an effect".
He added: "The EU must now pay a price for its unjustified ban. Within a week, probably 10 days, and no later than the end of July, retaliation will be in place."
The Office of the US Trade Representative had the authority to change the list of products as it saw fit. The EU, Mr Scher said, had offered to compensate the US "in a way we don't believe to be appropriate", especially as compensation was not an ultimate solution.
He was flanked by Mr Chambler Keys of the National Cattlemen's Association who urged swift retaliation to ensure EU compliance with WTO rulings. Mr Gerry Kiely, spokesman for Agriculture Commissioner Mr Franz Fischler, said the commission was prepared to engage in discussions on compensation, which would entail enlarging trade rather than retaliation. There was no room for compromise on the health issue as an independent scientific committee, which was not part of the commission, had concluded the US beef represented a serious risk.
There was valid recent research suggesting a link to increased colon and prostate cancer, and possibly breast cancer, he said. While its scientists believed there was sufficient proof already to justify the EU ban, the commission wished to see the completion of 17 other studies before going back to the WTO.
Following a WTO arbiter's report, the way is open for the US and Canada to impose tariffs up to $116 million and $11 million, respectively. When the original list was published in March, it was estimated that Irish products to the value of £10 million could be covered, with the possibility of a further £4.6 million non-food exports.
The US initially claimed $202 million annually for loss of market share, and while that has been almost halved by the ruling, it still has the option of targeting Irish products to the extent initially envisaged.
The Minister of State for Labour, Trade and Consumer Affairs, Mr Tom Kitt, urged the US and Canada to consider the option of accepting compensation from the EU rather than imposing sanctions. "Such compensation could take the form of increased access to the EU market for certain US and Canadian products," he said.
Having responsibility for consumer affairs, he said the US and Canadian authorities "must appreciate that real consumer concerns throughout Europe continue to exist in relation to hormone-treated beef". In excess of 90 per cent of US beef is produced using a combination of up to six growth hormones banned by the EU since 1989.
