For those of us who remember well the grim days of the 1980s the continuing economic boom is difficult for us to get our heads around. We expect the hard landing to be just around the corner despite evidence to the contrary all around us of net immigration, labour shortages and a budget surplus to die for.
The staggering figures announced in the National Development Plan are also difficult to comprehend as they are official confirmation that not only is it real, but it is here to stay.
A little more than a decade ago the Republic teetered on the brink of handing control over to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Thousands were leaving and those staying behind had to contend with huge unemployment, massive taxation, public spending cuts and an infrastructure suffering from galloping subsidence.
Paul Sweeney, a veteran of the bad old days, admits in the preface of this revised edition that he suffered from such trepidations common to survivors. He expected that at best the economy would falter and at worst would crash. Yet , despite the Asian crisis, sluggish euro zone growth and the fact that the UK, Britain, our biggest trading partner, has only recently shrugged off the shadow of recession, the Irish economy has gone from strength to strength. Why?
Mr Sweeney outlines the reasons why the boom has occurred and implies that he had under-estimated how deep the roots of this success had gone. All the reliables are here: Irish exports (especially computer-related) are in demand and it looks like it will continue; multinational investment; judicious use of EU cohesion funds; long-term investment in education. All these trends, as Mr Sweeney points out, took time to come to fruition and, luckily for us, they all came together at the right time providing the fuel which has pushed the economy along at breakneck speed.
On whether the boom will continue, Mr Sweeney is optimistic - even for an economist. Barring some unforeseen catastrophe, he argues that it will slow but continue if the Government avoids what he sees as the main threats. These are: poor policy decisions, infrastructural bottlenecks (housing etc), an end to national partnership, over-dependency on a few products, disinvestment by multinationals, stock market collapse, lack of EU funds and a downturn in the world economy.
This is a well thought out and argued work, packed with information, which, thankfully, is accessible to the layman as well as those versed in the arcane business of economics. And for a practitioner of the "dismal science" it is refreshingly optimistic.
Conn O Midheach comidheach@irish-times.ie
