Without a doubt the key issue this week will be the response of the markets to the finalising of the members of the first wave of European economic and monetary union by the EU Summit in Brussels over the weekend. Despite the May Day bank holiday, the Irish Stock Exchange will be open for business today as traders and analysts try to gauge the reaction of the markets to the locking in of the 11 currencies to the new single currency.
Most importantly, market watchers will be looking at the issue of interest rates convergence with the EMU amid recent signs that the entry level of rates at the end of this year could well be slightly higher than previously forecast. Regardless, the rates of the peripheral economies will still have to fall, a move very much against the grain for the Irish Central Bank in the light of continuing strength in credit growth.
A clearer indication of exactly what is happening on that front should become apparent on Wednesday when the March figures are released. Anything bar an unexpected retreat from last month's 25.9 per cent year-on-year rise would only strengthen the Central Bank's already firm resolve to delay rate cuts for as long as possible. Much will depend on the leadership of the new head of the ECB but whatever, he does, he faces a testing first seven months in the job.
Monday
Indicators: German PMI (Apr); Italian PMI (Apr).
Others: British markets closed for May Day bank holiday; Irish Stock Exchange open for post-EU Summit trading.
Tuesday
Results: British Petroleum (Q1), Incepta Group (H1), Sidlaw Group (H1).
A.G.M.: Alliance & Leicester, Ascot Holdings (also e.g.m.), Baldwin, James Beattie, Emess, Hoechst, KNP BT (Q1), Magnum Power (e.g.m.), Oliver Group, St Andrew Trust, St Paul Companies, United Biscuits, United Microelectronics.
Meetings: European Monetary Institute council meeting.
Indicators: Irish EBR (Apr); British M0 data (Apr); US housing completions (Mar), car registrations (Apr) and leading indicators (Mar); Italian wholesale prices (Mar) and producer prices (Mar).
Others: Internet World Spring '98 trade fair (Frankfurt to Thurs).
Wednesday
Results: Anglo Irish Bank (H1), Carbo, M&G Group (H1), Royal & Sun Alliance (Q1), J Sainsbury, Sandvik (Q1), Scottish Power, Securities Trust of Scotland, Tate & Lyle (H1), Time Products, Whitbread, Willis Corroon Group (Q1).
A.G.M.: Amey, Arjo Wiggins Appleton, BCH Group, Clydeport, CRH, Hodder Headline, Ivory & Sime Isis Tst, Keller Group, Norcor Holdings, Ockham, Oriflame, Rathbone Brothers, Sandvik, Unilever, Wellington Underwriting (e.g.m.).
Meetings: Franco-German summit (Avignon to Thurs); British monetary policy committee meeting (to Thurs). as.
Indicators: Irish credit growth (Mar); British PMI service survey (Apr); US factory orders (Mar); German cost of living (Apr) and manufacturing new orders (Mar); Italian consumer prices (Apr).
Others: General election in the Netherlands.
Thursday
Results: Abbeycrest, Avon Rubber (H1), Essex Furniture, Glasgow Income Trust (H1), Prowting, Raymond, Royal Bank of Scotland, Sanderson Group (H1), Royal Dutch/Shell (Q1), Silentnight Holdings, Viridian.
A.G.M.: Amvescap, British Mohair, BTR, Cadbury Schweppes, Cape, Croda International, CU Environmental Tst, Enic (e.g.m.), Flomerics, Latin American It, Lloyd's Smaller Co's, MacDonald House, B Matthew, Rio Tinto, Scholl, Servisair, Standard Chartered, George Wimpey.
Meetings: to Fri); EU industry ministers meet (Brussels); International Insurance Council's annual round-table on Insurance Conditions in Europe (New York); British monetary policy council meeting continues; Society of Actuaries seminar on mergers/takeovers in the life assurance industry (Conrad Hotel, Dublin).
Indicators: British CBI distributive trades survey (Apr), housing starts/completions (Mar), construction new orders (Mar); US productivity (Q1), wholesale trade (Mar), consumer credit (Mar), unit labour costs (Q1) and weekly jobless claims; German industrial production (Mar).
Others: British local elections; to Fri); TV3 unveils corporate logo (The Pod, Dublin).
Friday
Results: Audax Properties, Cairngorm Building Society Inv Trusts (No 1-10), Outokumpu (Q1), Value & Income.
A.G.M.: Clubhaus, Davis Service, EBC Group, Fife Indmar, James Fisher, Hillsdown, IMI, Laird, Mallet, Orange, Petrofina, St James's Place, Shell, Skillsgroup, Telewest Comms, Torex Group, Universal Ceramic.
Indicators: US unemployment (Apr) and average hourly earnings (Apr); German unemployment (Apr); Canadian unemployment (Apr).
