In its proposed broad economic policy guidelines published yesterday, the Commission has called not only for Mr McCreevy to reverse what it views as the excesses of last year's Budget but also to limit spending growth in 2002 to effectively 4 per cent.

The Minister made it very clear last night that he will be seeking a rewrite of these proposals which he stressed - not for the first time - were only guidelines.

In this he will be pinning his hopes on widespread dissatisfaction among EU member states. Gone are the days when most governments ignored the guidelines and signed off on the Commission's proposals with few amendments. As a result of this year's very public recommendation of censure against Ireland for failing to comply with the guidelines in framing Budget 2001, even the Commission itself has admitted that all has changed.

Mr McCreevy will be hoping that the general atmosphere will be more conducive to change than was the case when Ireland was fighting its corner on its own earlier this year. However, it must be unlikely that the Minister will achieve all the changes he needs to deliver another giveaway Budget.

In the proposals published yesterday the Commission has simply repeated the wording of the recommendation last February which referred to adopting "countervailing budgetary measures during the current fiscal year". The Minister is likely to argue that the US slowdown and foot-and- mouth, both of which the Commission acknowledge will slow growth, make this almost impossible to implement.

Irish officials, in support of their case for amendments are also likely to point to inconsistencies where the Commission suggests that a "high priority" be given to the National Development Plan. Yet the implication is that if the Government delayed some projects included in it the "countervailing measures" would be considered to have been met.

But Irish officials are likely to have a difficult job achieving success. The first meeting of the so-called alternates of the Economic and Financial Committee takes place on May 9th followed by the main committee meeting on May 18th. These two meetings and the intervening contacts will be vital as changes after the text reaches finance ministers are much less likely.

The Commission proposal that Mr McCreevy "prepare a Budget for 2002 that contributes to an orderly easing of the pace of demand" is unlikely to be contested by the Government. The economy is slowing anyway and the Minister will be trying to ensure that there is no hard landing.

Far more controversial is the proposal that he "improve expenditure control, reintroducing from 2002 clear norms on spending aggregates". The word "reintroducing" may not be quite what the Minister wanted. He would probably prefer "applying" but nevertheless the intention is clear. Spending growth should be brought back to the 4 per cent average Mr McCreevy promised when he came to office. But such a limit will be difficult to adhere to in the run-up to an election.

The market-related measures in the guidelines also tally with current Government rhetoric around increasing competition in sectors ranging from pubs and pharmacies to gas and electricity.

Overall the Minister can be pleased with much of what is proposed but he will have to pick his ground carefully to avoid another embarrassing fullblown confrontation with the Commission. But the timing - coinciding with the lead-up to the referendum on the Nice Treaty - is, likely to make both sides more cautious this time around.