THERE IS a 20 per cent chance Northern Ireland will fall back into a full-blown recession according to economic research published today, but it also reveals that certain parts of the North’s private sector are flourishing against the odds.

According to Northern Bank, the general outlook for economic growth remains weak with many sectors still contracting. Construction related industries continue to suffer the heaviest casualties as illustrated by the rapid number of firms going out of business.

The North’s relatively small financial services industry is also under pressure and the public administration sector will contract in the immediate future as a result of government budget cuts.

In general, Northern Bank is predicting annual growth of no more than 1 per cent overall for this year and 1.8 per cent for next.

But its latest Quarterly Sectoral Forecasts’ report also provides new evidence that key sectors are doing better than expected. Chief economist Angela McGowan said manufacturing, in particular, has delivered a strong performance in the first half of the year, 700 new jobs and year on year growth of 2.5 per cent.

There has also been strong employment growth in the hospitality sector and Northern Bank is predicting year on year growth of 3.6 per cent for this sector in 2010.

But Ms McGowan said the business services sector, which represents over 14 per cent of local economic activity in the North, showed growth of just 1.4 per cent.