ANALYSIS:IF HE said it once yesterday, Ryanair chief executive Michael O'Leary said it 100 times - "independence is no longer an option for Aer Lingus", writes Barry O'Halloran

Ryanair was publishing the formal offer document for its €1.40-a-share bid for the former State airline and its chief executive, Mr O'Leary, argued that there was no other way forward for its rival. His argument is that, without Ryanair, Aer Lingus will be subsumed by another large rival or wither on the vine and continue losing money.

The company expects operations to lose €20 million this year and to remain in the red in 2009.

In contrast, if shareholders sell to Ryanair, Mr O'Leary argues that Aer Lingus will become part of the world's biggest scheduled airline, and one of just four that he believes will end up dominating European aviation in the future.

He predicts that the other three will be Lufthansa, Air France and British Airways, which are leading a round of consolidation in Europe at the moment.

This is Ryanair's second bid for Aer Lingus. Two years ago, the European Commission shot down its first attempt, priced at €2.80 a share, for competition reasons.

That left Ryanair with 29.8 per cent of its rival, and the company clearly believes it can succeed in buying the remaining 70.2 per cent this time around.

While Aer Lingus chairman Colm Barrington said last night that Ryanair had not addressed the competition issue, Mr O'Leary did tackle it at the offer document's launch yesterday.

He pointed out that circumstances had changed dramatically over the past two years and the commission was now approving airline mergers that it would not have passed in 2006, effectively facilitating the mergers he believes will boil European aviation down to four big players.

Yesterday's launch was aimed squarely at the Government, which owns 25 per cent of Aer Lingus, and its workers, who hold almost 15 per cent. A sale will see the State get €188 million and employees get €137 million.

Mr O'Leary pledged yesterday that Aer Lingus would be run as a separate company with its own management and brand.

He also said Ryanair would guarantee its rival's slots in Heathrow, which are thought to be so vital to the national interest that they were the primary reason why the Government held on to a stake when Aer Lingus floated in 2006.

He argued that travellers would benefit to the tune of €40 million a year as Ryanair would cut Aer Lingus fares by 5 per cent.

The one thing he left out was just how the deal would benefit his own company.

Asked about this, he simply said that bidding for Aer Lingus seemed like "an interesting way of spending the month of December".