Next week there will be a changing of the guard at the biennial conference of the Irish Congress of Trade Unions (ICTU) in Bundoran, when Mr David Begg takes over from Mr Peter Cassells as general secretary. The omens are propitious. It was at Bundoran that Mr Cassells began his tenure of office in 1989.

Mr Begg, then general secretary of the Communications Workers' Union (CWU), was a member of the powerful general purposes committee of congress that endorsed the partnership approach and saved Irish unions from the sort of marginalisation suffered in Britain and the United States. His agenda and style will not be radically different from that of Mr Cassells.

Mr Begg and Mr Cassells have been liaising closely over the past few weeks and are likely to see a lot more of each other in the coming months. When Mr Cassells takes on his brief as executive chair of the National Centre for Partnership and Performance (NCPP) one of the first items on the agenda will be the EU directive on works councils for medium-sized companies - those employing 50 or more people.

Predictably, the Irish Business and Employers' Confederation (IBEC) has been calling for a minimalist approach, while unions have warned the Government against watering down workers' new-found rights. Mr Cassells could well be left brokering a deal through the NCPP.

Already, the former assistant general secretary of ICTU, Mr Kevin Duffy, is playing a similar role as deputy chairman of the Labour Court, and ICTU's former deputy general secretary, Ms Patricia O'Donovan, is director of the social dialogue programme at the International Labour Organisation in Geneva. In industrial relations terms, observers could be forgiven for thinking ICTU has not so much joined the establishment as taken it over.

But, as a new study on union recognition by Prof Bill Roche of UCD shows, union density is falling in the Republic. One reason is the hostile corporate culture of US companies investing here. More significant still are the structural changes in employment. Jobs are dying in union heartlands such as manufacturing and expanding in the services sector, where managements have always been hostile, and workers too mobile and vulnerable to recruit and hold.

Mr Cassells and Mr Begg recognise the need for new organisational methods. In fact, Mr Begg's old union, the CWU, has recently recruited 1,000 new members in call centres and courier firms. Other unions have followed suit, such as Mandate in retailing and SIPTU in construction. Privately, organisers operating in these areas admit the going can be very tough.

Until the early 1980s, the majority of new firms opening in the Republic were willing to recognise unions. Today the figure has fallen to around one-third.

The real change came in the recession, which coincided with the collapse of the first generation of national agreements. Union density has been falling ever since.

However worrying the situation at workplace level, the job of ICTU general secretary must, inevitably, remain fixed on the big picture. In some ways it is a peculiarly lonely role. Unlike the general officers of the big unions, the ICTU general secretary has little direct contact with branch activists and no big block of votes to wield at conference.

In fact the ICTU has no members, only affiliates. No individual worker can join ICTU and all congress employees, including the general secretary, are represented by the ATGWU. Ironically, under the leadership of Mr Mick O'Reilly, this has been one of the unions most consistently opposed to national agreements. The credibility of the ICTU general secretary therefore rests on the ability of the incumbent to think strategically and deliver.

In the ICTU policy document Confronting the Jobs Crisis, which Mr Cassells drafted in 1984, he has shown a rare ability to think ahead. At a time when 1,000 redundancies a week were being announced, social theorists were predicting "the end of work" and full employment was being denounced as a pipe dream, the document called for a national plan involving consultation between the government, employers and unions.

It took three years and a change of government to realise that project but, since the adoption of the Programme for National Recovery in 1987, which Mr Cassells helped negotiate as assistant general secretary, ICTU has continued to be the driving force in the evolving debate on social partnership.

Looking back, Mr Cassells reflects that "part of the difficulty with the partnership process is that we broadened the process to include social disadvantage, but in broadening it we may have taken on too many projects.

"We need to concentrate on issues that will make a real difference in people's lives."

He sees these as health services, child care, public transport, life-long learning and, above all, affordable housing.

"To get the level of services we want we need to put the whole question of productivity and organisational change at the heart of policy. I think workers will embrace change if they know they are going to have a significant say in how it comes about, and if they have a significant share in the benefits."

He accepts that profits are taking a bigger share of national income than in the past and the Government's failure to produce effective policies in areas such as health and housing prices poses a serious threat to the social partnership.

Mr Cassells predicts that failure to solve the housing crisis could be "the major fault-line in the partnership strategy". If that happens, the forces opposed to national agreements within the trade union movement could grow significantly.

However, he also believes "the increasing problems we face are an argument for deepening partnership rather than retreating from it".

Asked if the collapse of the current national agreement might leave the NCPP stranded, Mr Cassells responds: "In the absence of a national framework a centre becomes even more necessary. It will at least provide a forum where unions and employers can meet."