OPEC's decision yesterday to leave production limits unchanged and regroup in March will lead to a rise in already bloated global oil inventories, even with colder temperatures this winter, analysts said.

"With OPEC keeping at current production levels, we projected that oil stocks' rise would slow by only 200,000 barrels per day in the first quarter of next year and we are assuming a very cold winter," said Mr Jeremy Hudson at Salomon Smith Barney in London.

"If the cartel's current output is maintained until the end of next year, stocks could rise by an average of 700,000 barrels per day. This compares with an average of 900,000 barrels per day this year. The production limits are aimed at drawing supplies down in order to boost prices, but there will not be a significant cut in stocks despite the move," he added.

Mr Conrad Gerber at Petrologistics in Geneva said that even a harsh winter would not be enough to turn prices around from 25-year lows with OPEC producing at current levels.

The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries ended a biannual meeting in Vienna with an agreement to maintain output curbs of 2.6 million barrels per day agreed earlier this year and to review the market in March, when it can assess the impact of winter demand on inventories.

"OPEC is adopting a wait-and-see attitude. It is a holding move. They are saying `we have done enough and let's see how cold this winter gets before we cut production again', " said Mr Peter Hitchen at William De Broe in London.

But dealers and analysts said OPEC's decision could cause stocks to snowball in the event of a mild winter. "Stocks would still be on the high side at the end of the first quarter of 1999," said Mr David Knapp at the International Energy Agency (IEA). Mr Knapp said IEA conclusions were drawn on an assumption of a slightly cold winter in Europe and very low temperatures in North America.

Latest monthly IEA stocks figures showed that industry stocks at the end of the third quarter were more than 200 million barrels over the same time last year. The agency estimated a stockdraw in the fourth quarter at over a 1.5 million barrels per day and at 900,000 barrels per day in the first quarter of next year.

"Using the calculations, there would still be an overhang in oil stocks even when OPEC next meets," said Mr Knapp.

The New York market was closed yesterday for the Thanksgiving holiday.