Outlook bright for futurists

The urge to predict the future goes back to the Oracle at Delphi, to Nostradamus and to the Romans consulting the entrails of…

The urge to predict the future goes back to the Oracle at Delphi, to Nostradamus and to the Romans consulting the entrails of slaughtered bulls.

Today, "futurists" glean insights from more earthly sources - fringe newspapers, and websites; from human experts; and from the world itself, which futurists say contains "memories of the future". Whereas more traditional analysts are usually concerned only with their own sector or context, futurists turn unashamedly to what broadly lies ahead. And by carving out an increasingly valued role in the corporate world, the future of futurology looks much brighter.

"I think the key distinctions in what futurists provide vis-à-vis more traditional consultancies is a longer time-frame, consideration of a greater range of alternatives and a greater willingness to think out of the box," says futurist Andy Hines.

The list of companies and organisations which use futurology to guide product development or strategy include Nokia, Procter & Gamble, Philips, Siemens and DaimlerChrysler. The European Commission has a couple of foresight units.

READ MORE

The New York Timeshas its own in-house futurist. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development has a futures research programme and the British government has a Foresight programme, with 30 staff and a "horizon-scanning" centre.

The future is so complex, say futurists, that it cannot be foreseen by a single expert who concentrates only on his or her field. Futurists' key strategies are careful examination, "scenario-building" and "visioning".