The US Federal Reserve is expected to sit tight on interest rates at least for the first half of 1998 as it weighs the opposing forces of lower inflation caused by Asia's financial woes and red-hot growth in the world's top economy. But all bets are off for the second half of the year once central bank policy makers get a better idea of the real impact of Asia's deepening woes on the United States, analysts said.
The outlook is so muddy that even the thought of a monetary easing, an almost absurd idea barely six months ago, has made a silent comeback.
This week attention will focus on Europe where the Germans, British and French assess their interest rates. In Britain, a further quarter-point rate rise from this week's meeting of the monetary policy committee would come as no real surprise although there is little news of rate rises elsewhere in Europe for the moment.
In Ireland, little change on the rates front is expected in the short term, especially if the rate of credit growth is shown to be still around 20 per cent when the November figures are released on Thursday.
Abbey: House builder Abbey reports its interims on Thursday, and analysts will be hoping for profits ahead of expectations following upbeat predictions from chairman, Mr Charles Gallagher in October. He told the company's EGM the outlook for the year was "very encouraging" with growth in volumes and profitability. The plant hire unit is expected to have rebounded into profitability, while Irish development is said to be ahead of target.
The Potters Bar company recorded pre-tax profits for 1996 of £6.22 million sterling on turnover of £45 million sterling.
Ark Life: Following the announcement of buoyant life and pensions business at Progressive Life, the assurance arm of Irish Permanent on Friday, AIB's assurance subsidiary, Ark Life reports today and should confirm the picture of a burgeoning market, greatly assisted on the life side by the success of PIP and PEP products and on the pensions side by a healthy rise in single premium income in the midst of a economic boom.
Monday
Results: Ark Life, Treatt.
A.G.M.: Bass, DC Cook (e.g.m.), Formscan (e.g.m.), SBS Group.
Indicators: Irish Exchequer Borrowing Requirement (to end-1997); British purchasing managers' index (Dec); US construction spending (Nov); Japanese household spending (Nov) and foreign reserves (Dec).
Tuesday
Results: Albion, Precoat International (H1).
A.G.M.: Calluna (e.g.m.), Tyzack Precision (e.g.m.).
Meetings: European Monetary Institute (EMI) council meeting attended by European Commissioner, Mr Yves-Thibault de Silguy (Frankfurt).
Indicators: British M0 data (Nov); US factory orders (Nov).
Wednesday
Results: AG Barr, Gartland Whalley & Barker.
A.G.M.: AH Ball, Carr's Millings Industries, S Daniels (e.g.m.), Nord Anglia Education.
Meetings: British monetary policy committee meeting (to Thurs).
Indicators: British PMI Service Survey (Dec); US new home sales (Dec).
Others: L'Expansion forecast centre presents 1998 French economic forecasts (Paris).
Thursday
Results: Abbey (H1), Goode Durrant (H1), Heiton (H1), Hi-Tec Sports (H1).
A.G.M.: European Leisure (e.g.m.), UPF Group.
Meetings: Bundesbank council holds regular policy meeting (Frankfurt); Bank of France Monetary Policy Council meeting (Paris); British monetary policy committee meeting concludes.
Indicators: Irish consumer credit data (Nov); British housing statistics (Nov) and CBI distributive trades survey (Dec); US producer prices (Dec), housing completions (Nov) and consumer credit (Nov); French consumer spending (Dec).
Others: European Commission President, Mr Jacques Santer visits London for talks following start of British EU presidency.
Friday
Results: Kalamazoo Computer (H1).
A.G.M.: GET Group, Omnimedia, SWP Group, Victory Group (e.g.m.), VTR.
Indicators: Irish unemployment (Dec); US nonfarm payrolls (Dec), average hourly earnings (Dec) and wholesale trade (Nov); German unemployment (Dec); Italian consumer prices (Dec).
