ANALYSIS:Figures suggest rising white-collar joblessness might not be as severe as had been feared

DOES A not inconsiderable fall of 1.2 per cent in the numbers claiming dole in a single month suggest that the worst of the jobs crisis is over? Not by a very long chalk, but it is positive nonetheless.

The first (seasonally adjusted) shortening of dole queues in more than six months, and the biggest since the recession began, can only be welcomed.

Yesterday’s (unadjusted) figures show that the numbers signing on in September fell in every occupational category, in every age category and in all eight regions of the country.

As none of these figures are seasonally adjusted, they should be treated with some caution, particularly as September always sees a big fall in the claimant count (in unadjusted terms, one has to go back to 1980 to find a rise in the numbers signing on in September).

A potentially positive aspect of yesterday’s release from the CSO was that the figures go a little way to allaying concerns of a surge in white-collar joblessness. Over the summer it seemed as if this would grow into a tsunami.

The category of worker joining the dole queues in the middle of the year was largest among those in the “professional” grouping. Between April and August the number of professionals on the dole swelled by an amazing 30 per cent. In September, more than half of that increase was reversed.

For quite a few reasons, discussed in these pages on a number of occasions recently, white-collar joblessness is rising, but yesterday’s figures suggest that it may not be as marked as feared.

The accompanying illustration shows the composition of dole queues by age group. Just more than half of the people on welfare are under 35 years of age.

The largest percentage decline month on month was among the most footloose – those under 25.

It is very likely that a good proportion of these youngsters who signed off did so not because they had found a job or were going back to the classroom, but because they were quitting the country.

There were other aspects of the figures that confirmed well established negative trends. Chief among these was the continued rise in September of long-term joblessness. Now one in three of those on benefits has been claiming for more than a year.

Perhaps the most worrying number of the many released yesterday was that of the 24,506 net decline in the (unadjusted) claimant count, just 621 were accounted for by those out of work for more than a year. Proof, if proof were ever needed, that the longer one is without a job, the harder it is to find a one.