Schroder's tax coup silences his critics

It was a triumphant Gerhard Schroder who faced the photographers after his stunning success in pushing through a tax reform against…

It was a triumphant Gerhard Schroder who faced the photographers after his stunning success in pushing through a tax reform against apparently insurmountable opposition. Mr Schroder's skill and tenacity in winning the last-minute support of five wavering regional leaders in the opposition-dominated Bundesrat, the upper chamber of parliament, was as one of the biggest coups in the country's recent political history. He turned the tables on the opposition Christian Democratic Union and the Christian Social Union, its Bavarian sister party.

In so doing, he forced through a keenly-awaited fiscal package designed to improve Germany's competitiveness, attract inward investment and create jobs. It was a remarkable turnaround for the former regional premier from Lower Saxony, where he still spends a lot of his time. Only nine months ago, he was looking like a liability.

Mr Schroder's inexperienced coalition of Social Democrats (SPD) and Greens got off to a shaky start after the September 1998 general elections with a string of ill-conceived and poorly co-ordinated policies. Matters worsened over the summer, as the Chancellor failed to persuade grassroots SPD supporters to join his reformist programme. Rather than greeting Mr Schroder's pro-business agenda as a decisive step to seize the political middle ground after 16 years of CDU rule, many traditional SPD voters sat on their hands. After five humiliating state election setbacks in early autumn, his star hit rock bottom.

Even hardened political commentators wondered if Mr Schroder was out of his depth. Luck played a big part in the Chancellor's recovery. The collapse of the Philipp Holzmann building group in November allowed him to play to his strengths as a macho dealmaker ready to protect working peoples' interests: his personal intervention to broker a state bail-out for the company helped to win over formerly sceptical leftwingers.

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Suddenly, the man derided by party stalwarts as the "cashmere Chancellor" and the "buddy of the bosses" appeared to be a true Social Democrat. His biggest windfall came just a few days later when the CDU found itself engulfed in a slush fund scandal centred on Dr Helmut Kohl, its former leader. As the saga of secret bank accounts and undeclared cash contributions unfolded, the CDU's popularity crumbled, giving the Chancellor a second lease of life. But this latest astonishing victory showed that Mr Schroder has more than just luck on his side.

Mr Schroder's skilful negotiations with opposition leaders in the final hours before the crucial vote on the tax package spotlighted his two dominant political traits: finely-tuned political antennae and sheer tenacity, especially when against the wall. Mr Schroder's political daring is matched by an eventful private life. Married four times, the Chancellor, who has no children of his own, was criticised on coming to power for being superficial and supercilious. His passion for fat cigars and fine red wines only reinforced the image.

In recent months, however, the hard political grind - and advice from an army of spin-doctors - has made him keener to project a more statesman-like image. Mr Schroder's deal-making skills are among his greatest weapons. They emerged at their best in bilateral meetings with state leaders designed to exploit concerns, such as the need for additional financing to shore up flagging local coffers, or new infrastructure to boost business, which could be addressed with a helping hand from the federal government. Such ruthless pragmatism - a Schroder trademark - has been vilified by the CDU. After winning the vote on his taxation proposals Opposition leaders accused the Chancellor of subverting the political process.

Mr Edmund Stoiber, the Bavarian premier adamantly opposed to the tax reform, attacked Mr Schroder for "baksheesh behaviour". Mr Bernhard Vogel, the mild-mannered CDU leader of Thuringia and a political veteran, claimed he had never seen such shenannigans in 30 years in the Bundesrat. But such niceties mean little to the down to earth Mr Schroder. He often refers to his humble origins as the son of a cleaning woman who worked his way through night school, eventually qualifying as a lawyer. Mr Schroder's father was killed three days after Gerhard was born on April 7th, 1944. And the young boy quit school at 14 because there was no money for books or travel.

That background has contributed to Mr Schroder's direct - some say rock hard - personality. His news conference gave a taste of his approach. "Anyone inferring that the way decisions were conducted in the Bundesrat today was some sort of novelty is a hypocrite," he said. Having gambled for high stakes and won, Mr Schroder is now in an enviable position of strength to push through other reforms. The government has already taken bold steps to curb spending to balance the budget by 2006. It has pressed ahead with a long-awaited restructuring of the armed forces. On the social front, it last year enacted new citizenship in the face of savage opposition attacks. And, in recent weeks, it has even gone on to pass legislation recognising same sex marriages. Even the thorny issue of immigration, a political minefield in Germany, is to be tackled.

But revising the country's creaking pay as you go state pensions system is the most immediate item on the agenda. While there are still some qualms in the SPD about Mr Schroder's plans to promote private cover alongside the state system, this latest banner victory over the opposition should silence internal critics. However, the trade unions, traditional supporters of the SPD, are proving less malleable. And, as with tax, the CDU has declared war. This week, opposition representatives pulled out of cross-party talks, saying they could not negotiate with an inflexible government.

CDU leaders have maintained their commitment to fight Mr Schroder on pensions in spite of their tax defeat. The Chancellor, by contrast, called on the opposition to return to the negotiating table. For whatever his justifiable sense of triumph at this victory, Mr Schroder remains first and foremost a pragmatist. He knows many more challenges lie ahead to reform the German economy, particularly the labour market, and modernise society.

After all, even he accepts that luck eventually runs out. Asked last December whether the turnaround in the government's fortunes was a matter of luck or judgment, he replied: "It's all the result of hard work." Then, with a characteristic grin, he added: "With the benefit of hindsight, everything that goes well is put down to strategy. So say it's strategy."