`Sell in May' stock market maxim may not be best advice for investors

"Sell in May and go away, don't come back 'till St Leger's Day" is the old stock-market mantra that has served investors well…

"Sell in May and go away, don't come back 'till St Leger's Day" is the old stock-market mantra that has served investors well for many years. And depending on who you listen to, it could be the best or worst advice for anyone considering putting money into the stock markets at the moment.

The maxim is based on well-established seasonal patterns that show investors earn relatively meagre returns from the equity markets over the next few months and generally pick up again around the St Leger horse race in September. Most analysts will accept that this sentiment is certainly worthy of consideration if you are among the thousands of investors who are increasingly switching money out of deposit accounts into stock market-based investments.

Given the benign outlook for interest rates across Europe for the foreseeable future, products such as personal equity plans, personal investment plans and tracker bonds are becoming more attractive for anyone who can afford to take an element of risk on board when it comes to investing their money. Investing directly in individual stocks on the Irish and world markets is also a growing trend for more and more people.

So if you are among the mass of disillusioned investors fed up with earning paltry returns on funds held in deposit accounts, is now the right time to get into the stock market?

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In May 1999, many fund managers and investment gurus are urging caution.

Mr Frank O'Brien, an independent market analyst, believes investors should tread wearily at the moment. "It's getting late in the cycle to be entering the market. I would be cautious. I wouldn't rush in, although there could be opportunities to buy stocks at cheaper levels over the next six to nine months." Anyone preparing to switch money from a low-interest rate deposit account into the markets should be prepared to take a three- to five-year view, he says.

"Stock markets usually rise for three out of every four years. The current bull market has, by any standards, lasted about a year longer then expected. Globally things still look to be intact, with the exception of the bond markets, which are usually the first indicator of problems to come for the equity markets. So I would urge caution."

Mr Pramit Ghose, fund manager at Friends First, is also in cautious mode. "Is it time to get out of the markets? People were saying that three years ago. We are certainly cautious but are also looking for buying opportunities."

Mr Ghose says he is hoping for a correction or temporary decline in global stock market prices over the coming months which could present some bargains for investors.

For anyone casting around for value this week in the Irish stock market, he points to AIB and Bank of Ireland, as well as Greencore, which have all turned a bit weaker recently. In the longer term investors should watch for good value among the smaller stocks listed on the ISEQ Index, Mr Ghose advises.

One of the world's most successful investors, Mr Warren Buffet, has decided to ignore the "Sell in May and go away" adage this year. Earlier this week it emerged that he had turned his attentions to the British stock market, buying 2.2 per cent of the drinks group Allied Domecq through his investment vehicle, Berkshire Hathaway.

This move surprised the market to some degree and has highlighted his positive view of the prospects for British stocks. Mr Buffet likes to buy into companies which have strong brands. Allied Domecq certainly falls into that category, incorporating Ballantine's scotch whisky, Beefeater gin and Kahlua liqueur. Other companies which had been mentioned as possible Buffet targets were British Airways, Cadbury Schweppes, Marks & Spencer, Unilever, Reckitt & Colman, Diageo, Vodafone and Reuters Group.

Mr Buffet's existing investments are in a wide spectrum of businesses including insurance concerns, pilot-training, corporate jet time-sharing, jewellery, shoes, furniture and confectionery and he holds stakes in Coca-Cola and American Express. He also has his own views on booming stock markets; "Don't confuse intelligence with a bull market."

The fear which is dogging the markets is that stockmarkets are priced for the good times and so are vulnerable to any bad news. The key market to watch is the US. Any setback there will have a global impact and depress investment returns.

Mr Pat Woods, of Standard Life Investments, says the markets are vulnerable because they are selling on higher prices than ever before but profit growth is quite slow. "The emphasis on quality, safety and value for money is even more essential than usual in today's turbulent and highly-priced markets," he says.

Dr Dan McLaughlin, chief economist at ABN Amro, says the bull market is being underpinned by the belief that the recession in the world economy has finally bottomed out. This has manifested itself through rallies on stock markets in troubled economies such as Japan and has prompted renewed interest in investing in these regions.

Hibernian Investment Managers also notes the growing confidence among investors that global growth is steadily picking up, but cautions that the extent and pace of economic recovery is still tentative. Portfolio manager, Mr Dara FitzGerald, says that while investors are returning to regions such as the Far East it is questionable as to whether the pace of the markets' advances can be sustained. He suggests that investors will find it difficult to get anything other than very modest returns for the rest of the year.

HSBC Securities strategist, Mr Steve Russell, said many decisions will be influenced by the outlook for US interest rates. The US Federal Reserve signalled on Tuesday that it may raise interest rates to help to curb inflationary pressures. Some economists believe that an increase of up to a half of one percentage point has already been priced into the US markets and as such does not pose any immediate threat to global equities. A rate hike of greater proportion would, however, signal a less favourable outlook.

If this view proves to be the right one, "Hang on in May, don't go away" might be a more lucrative mantra this year. But then again, you have been warned.