It looks like we have a winner in the fight to determine the dominant format for high-definition (HD) DVDs. The see-sawing battle tipped strongly to Sony's Blu-ray last week when film studio Warner Bros announced it would stop releasing films in the rival HD DVD format backed by Microsoft and Toshiba.
Roughly 70 per cent of new films will now be released exclusively on Blu-ray.
Toshiba appeared to be in disarray at the critical 2008 International Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in Las Vegas this week. The company said retailers had expressed their commitment to HD DVD during private meetings at the show, which is the world's largest consumer technology gathering.
However, Warner Bros' decision to start making films exclusively for Blu-ray DVD players, rather than HD DVD, triggered an "out" clause in Paramount Pictures' contract with the HD DVD camp. An industry source said there was a significant possibility that Paramount would exercise that clause and that it planned to make a decision within a month.
Sony Pictures, Buena Vista, 20th Century Fox and MGM had already sided with Blu-ray, while Paramount chose HD DVD, as did Universal Pictures, which has yet to comment on the issue. Paramount officials have said they will continue to support HD DVD.
The Blu-ray Disc Association this week claimed a significant edge over HD DVD, with 85 per cent of all next-generation players purchased since Blu-ray hit the market late in 2006. The group also said 66 per cent of all high-definition films sold in 2007 were Blu-ray.
Warner's decision is good news for Blu-ray backers and even better for the industry as a whole.
As in previous format disputes, consumers have been waiting for the dust to settle. Almost 2.4 billion standard DVDs were sold worldwide in 2007, compared with just 14.2 million Blu-ray and HD DVD discs combined, according to Screen Digest.
If Blu-ray takes hold, sales could pick up. With more volume, the price of players and recorders could fall, further spurring demand and creating a virtuous circle. Sales of Sony's PlayStation 3 game console, which includes a Blu-ray player, could also get a boost.
Danny Kaye, 20th Century Fox Home Entertainment's executive vice-president of technology strategy, predicted that Blu-ray players - including Sony PlayStation 3 game consoles, which also play films in the format - would jump from 3.5 million sold by the end of 2007 to 10 million by the end of this year. He forecast a similar surge in film sales, from $170 million (€116 million) to $1 billion in consumer spending.
While Blu-ray may be winning the battle with HD DVD, the changeover to either format should not be overstated.
Unlike video cassettes and DVDs, which spurred film fans to create and then replace entire libraries, HD players are unlikely to have the same impact. HD films look better, but the difference is not so great as to make older versions appear relatively unwatchable.
It is not clear whether the future is in silver discs like the DVD, or in digital downloads. It is already possible to rent or buy high-resolution downloads from services such as the online marketplace attached to Microsoft's Xbox 360 game console.
Indeed, the entire HD format skirmish may turn out to be yesterday's war.
