"Spain may pass the Maastricht exam and find that EMU is not a bursary," a Spanish economist warned last year. But Spain was swotting so hard then, and is performing so well now, that hardly anyone wants to consider the potential downside of matriculation into monetary union.
The only major grouping outside the consensus is the communist-led United Left, which is not taken entirely seriously on the issue even by fraternal trades unions. The previous socialist and current conservative governments have single-mindedly focused their economic powers on an energetic rush to exchange pesetas for euros next January. Over the last two years, Spain has moved up from being an outsider to a front runner in the convergence race. In 1998, the targets for inflation and government deficit are certain to be met. Interest rates have continued to drop, to 4.25 per cent.
In a strongly performing economy, with soaring exports, any further cut in rates makes little sense from a short-term economic point of view. But the political will to continue cutting to achieve convergence is certainly there.
The EU as such is not universally popular, as witnessed by the angry response to proposed regulation of the olive oil market, in which the Spanish minister of agriculture joined thousands of demonstrators on the streets. But if such an emotive (if, strictly speaking, unrelated) issue has not dampened EMU enthusiasm, relatively abstract matters like ECB control of interest rates, or possible loss of cohesion funds, have hardly impacted at all.
On the contrary, down in deepest Castille, a touchstone for canny grassroots wisdom, the farmers' associations are already busy translating their members' incomes into the new currency. And what is true at the level of popular opinion is, perhaps more surprisingly, reflected faithfully in business circles as well. "There was always a clear decision to be first in line for the euro," a diplomatic source says. "There is such a dose of sheer willpower to achieve this goal, that there is practically no debate on what happens afterwards."
Spain, like Ireland, is determined to resist any automatic cutting of cohesion funds for successful first-round EMU entrants.
In any case, while Spain is the biggest financial beneficiary of the EU in absolute terms, in relative terms it is not nearly as dependent as that might imply.
The Economist has questioned how well Spain will be able to meet the challenge of domestic price stability, once the support of a domestically orientated monetary policy is kicked away in 1999. Spain accounts for only 7 per cent of EU GDP, and will therefore only be a "minor variable" in the elaboration of ECB policy.
But, says the unit's Mr Brian McGarry, "with the economy doing well, further international integration is still seen as more of an opportunity than a danger".