Techies likely to replace dying old economy stocks

The volume of trading might have been negligible, but just as Athlone's jump from 65 cents to 85 cents ahead of the leak of the…

The volume of trading might have been negligible, but just as Athlone's jump from 65 cents to 85 cents ahead of the leak of the Barlo deal showed there's no smoke without fire, some in the market believe that something corporate is going on at ICG.

At €6.30, the shares are only half their level of last February and almost a third of their 1998 high, so there must be a temptation for somebody to make a pitch.

Maybe there will be 40 new techie companies on the market in three years, but Current Account has no doubt that they will be replacing a host of midcap old economy stocks whose ratings have reached such piffling levels that they are prime candidates for going private or being bought out.

So, putting his head on the block, this is Current Account's forecast of who will exit the market in the next two or three years.

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Abbey will probably go - maybe through a family buyout by the Gallagher dynasty. Green and Dunloe Ewart will also go - probably through asset break-up and cash distributions.

Jurys will go - probably being taken over by one the international hotel groups. Ryan will be bought by Red Sea Hotels.

Fyffes might be taken private by the McCann's given that its price is less than a quarter what it was at the beginning of the year.

Heiton will be bought out by Grafton, who in turn may be gobbled up by one of the big British groups.

First Active will be swallowed in the next stage of bank rationalisations.

Greencore and Golden Vale will become one - maybe through some bit of financial engineering put together by common shareholder Dermot Desmond.

Glanbia, alas poor Glanbia, might be taken private by the co-op. James Crean will be wound up and the cash distributed and son-of-Crean Oakhill will go private.

One could go on. . . and on. The list of potential departures is lengthy and a lot of new techies will need to come to the market if Dublin is have any prospect of retaining a stock market of any worth.

Most of the bigger stockbrokers are already making a lot of their money trading stocks on international markets and Dublin is becoming more and more of an investment backwater.