Technology will radically change nature of industry

For those who have not put their own money down, the next decade in the telecommunications industry is going to serve up more…

For those who have not put their own money down, the next decade in the telecommunications industry is going to serve up more enthralling, cruel fun than Sky Sports could ever hope to broadcast.

New technology will shift the goalposts again and again, the size of the pitch will change, the players will switch sides regularly, and there will be dozens of teams.

In the midst of the chaos, however, astute spectators will keep one eye permanently on the match officials.

The Republic's own referee, the telecoms regulator Ms Etain Doyle, has already outlined a strongly pro-competition approach to the job.

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Her office has remained fiercely independent - and leak-proof - during periods of intense lobbying. But the most arduous tests, for Ms Doyle and for her EU counterparts, are yet to come.

Already, there are major differences in approach by regulators across Europe. Some, like Ms Doyle, take the view that most licences should be awarded for relatively short periods, be non-transferable, and be easy to obtain.

Others, such as those in Italy and Belgium appear to be less enthusiastic about permitting what incumbent operators regard as a "free for all", and what newcomers view as "open competition".

In the Republic, the battle over the interconnect rate - the tariff any operator must pay another to use its infrastructure - now appears to be over.

The prices Telecom announced this week place the Irish rate well below the EU average, and should spark a series of price reductions on mobile phones and other services.

With the interconnect issue out of the way, the biggest time-bomb awaiting regulators is the issue known as "unbundling the local loop". In short, this would mean Telecom being forced to sell the use of to copper wire infrastructure separately from its phone line rental service.

Other companies, for the moment more or less limited to competing on the price of calls, could then offer residential customers a greater range of products and services.

The issue could come to a head sooner rather than later. For example, Telecom is already running trials of a new technology called asymmetrical digital subscriber line (ASDL), which allows rapid access to the Internet and other data through the normal, copper phone line.

But if the company launches such a service, rivals, such as Esat and Ocean, are likely to call on the regulator to force Telecom to allow them offer customers the same service, using Telecom's copper infrastructure. Telecom is sure to object, arguing that it built the infrastructure, and has the right to "bundle" the wires with the line rental.

Another contentious issue, still unresolved, is who should pay, and how much, for the supply of service to commercially non-viable areas. Telecom argues strongly for a universal service fund, with contributions from all providers; others, such as Esat, say the marketing advantages for Telecom of offering a universal service outweigh any such costs. Industry observers are also interested to see how quickly European regulators, and incumbent telecoms, will move on the "carrier pre-selection" issue.

Pre-selection would let customers choose which company their home telephone automatically used, as opposed to having to plug in an autodialer box to route calls through anyone except Telecom. Another vital question facing regulators centres on wireless communications, and how much of a limited radio spectrum should be allocated for use to encourage companies to build new, wireless infrastructures.