The possibility of an economic downturn has been whispered, articulated, rejected, challenged, denied and is now being accepted by many as inevitable, writes Marie Murray.

To the outside observer, as opposed to the economic expert, the process of the downturn and the discourse that surrounds it seems to be one of deferral by denial - until denial becomes irrational and the realities of change has to be accepted.

If there is a downturn, it will be highly visible in the property market into which so much private and corporate money has been invested. The fall in property prices has been the public marker for the private citizen that the boom may be over, adjustment may be necessary and unpredictable financial times may lie ahead.

Of course, those who have lived long enough are aware of the cyclical nature of prosperity and depression, surplus and scarcity, employment and unemployment. They know, intuitively, that no trend can continue into infinity. Gravity alone dictates that what goes up must come down.

The cyclical nature of ordinary life shows that change is inevitable, that the longer we live, the greater the number of recurring changes we will encounter and that survival, at every level, has less to do with what happens and more to do with what we do about what happens to us.

Some will await the verdict of the economists, their analysis and advice, their predictions about the likely process and progress of economic change and whether it is a temporary blip or a more permanent state of affairs.

Others realise that they are not players of sufficient import to follow macroeconomic arguments and that buying while house prices are falling or selling quickly before they bottom out altogether is the decision they have to make, before it is too late.

Responses to threatened economic change vary. There are those, who in times of uncertainty have the capital resources to wait and see, there are those who have personally over-extended themselves, who believe that they cannot wait to see what will happen to them and those who are waiting to see how they might profit from this phase, investing when prices are lower until the upturn when they may rocket again.

Personality types emerge: the conservatives, the risk-takers, the gamblers, the risk-avoiders, the speculators and the cynical who have seen all this before.

Psychological strategies emerge when adaptations to sequential societal and economic changes are required. How people respond to change says much about their psychological disposition.

In times of change, the psychological defence mechanism of denial, displacement, projection, rationalisation, reaction formation, repression and sublimation may appear. The denial phase is over, displacement of blame has begun and the projection of one's emotions onto others is one way of deferring the full emotional impact of how things may now have to be different.

In time, certain benefits of the bubble bursting will be pointed out in articles and debates. Perhaps, it might be said, that we will regain a sense of self, a reduction in greed, a return to the social capital of former times before neighbourliness ever merited such a grandiose title.

But reaction formation will confuse us as to whether we really welcome or reject what is happening. The niggling threat of a downturn has shifted from the unconscious into societal awareness and whether or not we achieve sublimation - by turning what is happening into acceptable constructive responses - has yet to be seen.

Major change and threatened loss also evoke the classic stages of grieving and once more, denial is at the forefront. Perhaps that is why there was such extended reluctance to engage in the discourse of downturn, to confirm that the property market was not what it used to be.

When denial does not work, anger enters - why me, why now, when I have so much invested, when the business was booming, when plans for retirement were imminent? Why was I allowed to over-extend myself financially? Why did the Government put all is economic eggs in one basket? Anger is followed by bargaining for time, fixed interest rates or deferral of closure of deals that have begun. For some, there may be depression, helplessness in the face of economic forces that are outside one's control.

A generation unskilled in hardship may face its greatest challenge and its finest reward. It may be reassuring for them to know that acceptance is the final psychological stage - people adjust, manage, overcome, scale-down, review, recreate, reinvent and re-emphasise what is important.

And let us not forget those who were excluded from prosperity when times were good. Will they perhaps, sit on the sidelines of the downturn debate and think that there are bizarre advantages sometimes to having nothing, for then one has literally nothing to lose?

Clinical Psychologist Marie Murray is director of the student counselling services at UCD. Her latest book Living our Times is published by Gill & Macmillan.