The battle for the hearts and wallets of Belfast shoppers is heating up as three multi-million-pound shopping-complex projects in the heart of the city are competing for approval by the Belfast Regeneration Authority (BRA).
A study commissioned by the Belfast Chamber of Trade has found that the city urgently needs an additional 400,000 to 500,000 square feet of retail space, a figure which is expected to increase to 700,000 square feet by 2005. Yet given the size of the three proposed projects, it is most likely that only one of them will be given the green light by the BRA.
The giant among the three schemes is a joint venture between property developers Dunloe Ewart and MEPC/John Laing Property. Their proposal envisages a £400 million sterling mixeduse retail, leisure and residential development adjacent to and opposite the pearl of Belfast shopping malls, Castlecourt, on Royal Avenue.
MEPC, which owns Castlecourt, had decided to go into partnership with John Laing, the centre's previous owners, in a bid to extend the complex, while Dunloe Ewart was planning a major investment in the North Street area opposite Castlecourt.
Last month, the three companies announced they had decided to pool resources and build a 750,000 square feet complex in what they insist is not a "marriage of convenience" but one of "expertise".
Analysts say the scheme's strongest point is that it would build on the success of the already hugely successful Castlecourt. The fact that it would extend into the newly vibrant Cathedral Quarter, one of the city's most up-and-coming commercial and residential areas, is an additional plus.
On the downside, its sheer size - well over one million square feet if one includes the already existing Castlecourt - could mean shoppers spending the entire day under one roof rather than "invigorating" the city centre as a whole, one of the main criteria of the BRA when assessing the applications.
The second scheme is a £200 million proposal by the Dutch developers Multi Development Corporation (MDC) for a retail, leisure, housing and hotel complex at Victoria Square near the Law Courts.
It is said to include 52,000 square feet in retail space - half of which could be taken up by a department store on the site of the current Industrial Development Office in Chichester Street - a 2,000 square feet health club, a hotel, several themed restaurants and 30 luxury apartments overlooking the river Lagan.
On the plus side, the scheme is by far the architecturally most adventurous including glass covered walkways, arcades and a glass dome. On the down side, this also makes it in relative terms the most expensive of the three projects. A further drawback of the MDC project is its location. While extending towards the river, an area greatly revitalised by the developments of the Laganside Corporation in recent years, it is still a fair walk from Belfast's main shopping artery, Royal Avenue.
The fact that MDC sees itself exclusively in terms of a property developer rather than a property owner and is, therefore, expected to sell off the complex on its completion, could also speak against its application.
The third scheme is a multimillion pound development by Land Securities, the largest property company in the UK, and Deramore Developments, a privately-owned Belfast-based firm.
Details of the project are still to be finalised, but it is understood to be primarily a retail development in the Castle Street/College Street/King Street area of the city centre.
The location will probably be the scheme's greatest asset in the eyes of the BRA, which is keen for pedestrians and shopping facilities to expand towards the west of the city centre, undoubtedly its most neglected and underdeveloped part. On the other hand, the complex would still be close enough to the City Hall/Donegall Square/Royal Avenue areas to benefit from its facilities.
What speaks against it is its relatively insignificant size as well as the fact that it is not expected to include residential developments, something the BRA is very keen on in a bid to breathe life into a city centre which dies the minute shops close.
The BRA is awaiting the report of its chartered surveyors, the Glasgow-based firm Drivers and Jonas, due to be completed in early October, before announcing its decision. Drivers and Jonas have already received MDC's and Land Securities/Deramore's proposals while Dunloe Ewart/MEPC/John Laing are expected to submit their new joint plan - they had originally submitted separate proposals - in the next few weeks.
The regeneration office has also commissioned an independent study into future demands in retail space in the city centre. If it concludes the demand exists, the BRA could approve two rather than just one project, although these are likely to be the two smaller schemes.
In any case, all three projects are counting to various extents on the BRA to make use of its compulsory purchasing powers and acquire for them properties which are included in the plans, but not actually yet in possession of the developers. They will also require the authority's assistance in dealing with issues such as access and parking.
